000 AGXX40 KNHC 290735 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 235 AM EST THU NOV 29 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE SE U.S. EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF TO SOUTHERN TEXAS. THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND SUPPORT GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUE...EXCEPT FOR MODERATE TO FRESH E-NE WINDS IN THE EXTREME SE PORTION...INCLUDING THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...FRI THROUGH SUN ASSOCIATED WITH WESTERN EXTENSION OF A SHEAR LINE IN THE SW N ATLC. EXPECT 2-4 FT SEAS OVER MOST OF THE AREA EXCEPT DOWNSTREAM FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS...WHERE SEAS WILL BUILD TO 6-7 FT FRI THEN GRADUALLY EXPAND WESTWARD TO THE S CENTRAL GULF AT 5-6 FT THROUGH TUE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 19N W OF 55W... HIGH PRES RIDGE N OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE NE TO E-NE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUE. 6-8 FT SEAS IN THE NW AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE TO 4-5 FT SAT...WHILE 5-6 FT SEAS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SUBSIDE TO 4 FT. EXPECT 6-7 FT SEAS TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC THROUGH TUE. SW N ATLC N OF 19N W OF 55W... COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N64W THROUGH NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO 24N 80W WILL STALL AND BECOME STATIONARY FROM 31N57W TO 24N80W BY TONIGHT...THEN TRANSITION TO A SHEAR LINE SAT. HIGH PRES SHIFTING SLOWLY EASTWARD FROM THE CAROLINAS THROUGH SAT WILL INCREASE THE GRADIENT N OF THE SHEAR LINE BOUNDARY...WITH NELY 20-25 KT WINDS EXPECTED WITHIN 150-200 NM N OF BOUNDARY IN A CLASSIC SHEAR LINE PATTERN. REINFORCING HIGH ACROSS NW ATLC THIS WEEKEND LIKELY TO EXPAND AREA OF 20-25 KT WINDS TO MUCH OF THE AREA NW OF THE SHEAR LINE...WITH SEAS BUILDING 8-9 FT E OF BAHAMAS. FURTHER EAST...A MID ATLC TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO CARVE INTO LOW LEVELS NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND INDUCE HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGHING AT SFC ALONG 48W...THEN SHIFT E TO ALONG 45W OVER THE WEEKEND. ECMWF SOLUTION SEEMS MORE LIKELY IN TERMS OF LOW PLACEMENT...AND RESULTANT WIND-WAVE FIELD WAS USED AS BASIS FOR SEAS FCST. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECAST IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. SW N ATLANTIC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER MUNDELL