000 AGXX40 KNHC 271820 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 120 PM EST TUE NOV 27 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... BUOY AND PLATFORM OBSERVATIONS IN THE NW GULF THIS MORNING SHOWED A FRESH NORTHERLY BREEZE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM NEAR NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. THE FRONT WILL LOSE MOST OF ITS PUNCH AS IT CROSSES THE NORTHERN GULF. IT IS EXPECTED TO LIE FROM HOMOSASSA FLORIDA TO 26N94W TO TAMPICO MEXICO TONIGHT AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES S FROM SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THROUGH 23N95W TO 19N96W BY WED EVENING. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE FRONT AND AGREE ON HIGH PRES SLOWLY MOVING E OVER THE MID ATLC STATES THU AND FRI...PASSING OFFSHORE SAT. THIS HIGH PRES WILL DRIVE LIGHT TO MODERATE SE WINDS W OF 90W THU THROUGH SAT. MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED E OF 90W DURING THAT SAME TIME WITH THE STRONGER WINDS FORCED BY THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE GULF AS WELL AS THE TAIL END OF THE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE ATLC WHICH IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A SHEAR LINE DURING THIS TIME. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 19N W OF 55W... THE 1114 UTC WINDSAT PASS SHOWS A SOLID AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...WITH WINDS TO NEAR GALE FORCE ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THESE WINDS ARE DRIVEN BY THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE 1028 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH NEAR 33N62W AND SURFACE TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA ALONG 84W/85W. THIS STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE N OF THE AREA WILL WEAKEN BEGINNING THU AS THE FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO SWEEPS N OF THE AREA. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH WED WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THU THROUGH SAT AS A RESULT...AND THE FRESH TRADE WINDS AND SEAS TO 9 FT IN E SWELL ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC WILL DIMINISH WED NIGHT THROUGH SAT. SW N ATLC N OF 19N W OF 55W... THE TAIL END OF A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT N OF PUERTO RICO CONTINUES TO BE A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE FAR SE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AS WELL AS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THU. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS WEAK BOUNDARY AND THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH TO THE N WAS STRONG ENOUGH TO FORCE FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS N OF THE BOUNDARY WITH SEAS TO 9 FT AT BUOY 41043 AT 1700 UTC. AS THE BOUNDARY DISSIPATES THROUGH TONIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD DIMINISH. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY IN THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MOVE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST TONIGHT...SHIFTING THE RIDGE ALONG 30W EASTWARD AHEAD OF IT. THE COLD FRONT WILL LIE FROM 31N69W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS WED EVENING AND FROM 31N55W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THU EVENING BEFORE STALLING AND TRANSITIONING TO A SHEAR LINE FRI INTO SAT AS THE THICKNESS PACKING BEHIND THE FRONT LOOSENS. HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE JUST N OF THE BOUNDARY THU AND FRI. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECAST IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. SW N ATLANTIC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER SCHAUER