000 AGXX40 KNHC 231900 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EST FRI NOV 23 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... HIGH PRES CENTER 1024 MB SITS IN CENTRAL GULF AT 26N90W AS IT WEAKENS AND DISSIPATES. LIGHT TO GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC BREEZE KEEPS SLIGHT SEAS UNDER 3 FT. SCENE ABOUT TO CHANGE AS WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO COASTAL WATER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND REACH FROM N OF TAMPA FLORIDA TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS LATE TONIGHT. FRESH NE BREEZE BUILD SEAS TO 5-6 FT N OF FRONT SAT BUT LITTLE IS NOTED ELSEWHERE. CONDITIONS RETURN TO ITS ORIGINAL STATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN. APPROACH OF SECOND WEAK COLD FRONT INCREASE FRESH S RETURN FLOW W OF 95W LATE MON AND TUE WHILE WEAK ATLC HIGH PRES MAINTAINS LITTLE CHANGE E OF 95W. MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FORCED BY WEAK TROUGH OVER SW CARIBBEAN CONTINUES...WITH FRESH N WINDS MIXING WITH MODERATE ELY TRADES S OF 13N. ASSOCIATED SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXPECTED TO HOLD STEADY AS UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ENHANCED ITS OUTFLOW ALOFT. DEVELOPING WEAK LOW PRES S OF PANAMA FEEDS TROPICAL MOISTURE OFF COAST OF COLOMBIA AS IT DRIFTS N INTO SW CARIBBEAN BY MON. UKMET AND GFS DIFFER IN DEVELOPING LOW PRES INTENSITY AND TIMING...BUT OVERALL SCENARIO CONGRUENT. ELSEWHERE IN CARIBBEAN...REBUILDING ATLC HIGH PRES CENTER TIGHTENS GRADIENT AND FORCES INCREASE IN TRADEWINDS TO A FRESH BREEZE...EVEN TO STRONG ALONG COAST OF COLOMBIA...THEN SPREADING INTO CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH TUE. SEAS MAY REACH AS HIGH AS 10 FT BY MON. SW N ATLC W OF 55W... STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE NW TO N WINDS W OF COLD FRONT EXTEND BUILD SEAS TO 10-14 FT E OF BAHAMAS AND 6-8 FT W OF BAHAMAS. DEEP LAYER TROUGH SUPPORTING FRONT LIFTS NE THROUGH TONIGHT... WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND DIMINISHING WINDS. SECOND SURGE OF NW WINDS CAUSED BY WEAKER COLD FRONT ENTERING BASIN LATE SAT KEEP SEAS FROM SUBSIDING TILL MON. HIGH PRES CENTER 1022 MB ENTERS SW N ATLC MON WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE E BREEZE THROUGH TUE ACROSS ENTIRE BASIN. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECAST IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. SW N ATLANTIC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER WALLY BARNES