000 AGXX40 KNHC 171108 AAA MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION...UPDATED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 605 AM EST SAT NOV 17 2012 UPDATED GULF OF MEXICO TO INCLUDE MENTION OF THE MOST RECENT OSCAT PASS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... LATEST AND RECENT BUOY AND OIL RIG PLATFORM OBSERVATIONS SHOW GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AS A HIGH PRES RIDGE...ANCHORED BY STRONG HIGH PRES OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION OF THE COUNTRY EXTENDS SSW TO THE NW AND CENTRAL GULF PORTIONS. AN OSCAT PASS FROM JUST PAST 0504 UTC THIS MORNING INDICATED SUCH FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS. THE BUOY OBSERVATIONS ARE REPORTING SEA HEIGHTS OF 3-5 FT...EXCEPT FOR A SMALL POCKET OF LOWER 2-3 FT SEAS IN THE NE PORTION. IN THE ADDITION TO THE RIDGE MENTIONED ABOVE...THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE FAR SW GULF THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR 24N97W SE TO A WEAK 1020 MB LOW DROPPING S AT 21N96W. THE LOW TO MID CLOUD SWIRL WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IS CLEARLY IDENTIFIABLE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE NE GULF. SIMILAR TYPES OF CLOUDS ARE SCATTERED TO BROKEN...AND ARE SEEN E OF 91W. THE WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS BROAD UPPER TROUGHING THAT EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN U.S. SSW TO THE EASTERN GULF. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ROTATING THROUGH ITS BASE...AND IS APPROACHING THE FLORIDA W COAST. IN ITS WAKE...DRY AIR ALOFT IS NOTED TO COVER THE GULF AS FAR W 95W N OF 24N...AND S OF 24N W OF 90W WHERE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF MOSTLY LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS IS PRESENT. CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT ARE EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT IN THE NE GULF ARE DUE TO A TIGHTER PRES DIFFERENCE FOUND THERE AS A RESULT OF THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AND BROAD LOW PRES E OF FLORIDA. HOWEVER...THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH MON AND WHILE THE LOW PRES LIFTS N. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE NE 15-20 KT TO DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT LATE SUN AND MON WITH SEAS IN THE NE GULF AT ABOUT 3-5 FT AND LOWER TO 2-4 FT IN THE FAR N PORTION LATE SUN THROUGH WED. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... THE HIGH RESOLUTION ASCAT PASS FROM 0200 UTC LAST NIGHT REVEALED A NE-E 10-15 KT OVER A PORTION OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. SIMILAR WIND CONDITIONS ARE CONTINUING OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...EXCEPT FOR THE SW PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA WHERE N WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE OCCURRING S OF 15N AND W OF 81W AS A RESULT OF TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT THERE BETWEEN HIGHER PRES FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO THAT EXTENDS TO THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA...AND A WEAK LOW PRES OF 1011 MB AT 12N18W WITH A TROUGH NW TO FAR NE NICARAGUA AND SE TO NEAR THE COAST OF NW COLOMBIA. WITH THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS SUGGESTED BY THE MODELS...EXPECT THE 20-25 KT N WINDS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN TO CONTINUE THROUGH WED. RELATED SEAS THERE WILL BE IN THE 6-8 FT RANGE. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0020 UTC LAST NIGHT MISSED THE TROPICAL N ATLC BY ABOUT 2 DEG TO THE E. THE PASS INDICATED NE-E WINDS OF 15-20 KT. SIMILAR WIND CONDITIONS ARE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC WITH SEAS THERE OF 6-9 FT IN A N SWELL. CENTRAL ATLC HIGH PRES IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN THROUGH WED ALLOWING FOR THESE WINDS TO DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT...AND TO 5-10 KT TUE AND WED AS THEY VEER TO THE SE-S IN DIRECTION. THE 6-9 FT SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 5-6 FT MON...AND TO 4-5 FT TUE AND WED AS THE N SWELL DECAYS. SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS BEEN HIGHLIGHTING..AND IS CURRENTLY SHOWING AMPLE DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONFINED TO THE SW AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN AND ALSO ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS MOISTURE IS IN THE FORM OF MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ON THE SE SIDE OF A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN...AND CONFLUENT FLOW FOUND IN THE LOWER LEVELS. CONVECTION IS ALSO ACTIVE ALONG NW COLOMBIA DUE TO SURFACE LOW PRES THERE...AND ALREADY PRESENT DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE. SW N ATLC W OF 55W... THE PRELIMINARY 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR 31N75W SW TO THE NW BAHAMAS. A LARGE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N64W SSW TO NE HISPANIOLA. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ABUNDANT DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS COVERING MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST ZONES. THE 0202 UTC HIGH RESOLUTION ASCAT PASS NOTED GENERALLY LIGHT ELY N-NE WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND WRN PORTIONS OF THE BASIN... WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE BASIN BEHIND THE FRONT WHERE N-NE 20 KT WINDS ARE NOTED DUE TO A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT THERE AS A RESULT OF HIGH PRES RIDGING WEDGED BETWEEN THE FRONT AND THE SE U.S. COAST. MAX SEAS THERE ARE UP TO 8 FT PER BUOY DATA. SEAS ELSEWHERE ARE 5-6 FT IN A NE SWELL...EXCEPT 2-4 FT SW OF THE BAHAMAS. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY SUGGESTING THAT LOW PRES DEVELOPS ALONG THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS ALONG 30N64W TO NE HISPANIOLA OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HRS. THE PRES DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THIS LOW AND THE HIGH PRES GRADIENT WILL KEEP THE NLY WINDS ELEVATED BEHIND THE STATIONARY OVER THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE BASIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO INCREASE TO 25 KT WITH 30 KT AT OR JUST N OF 30N THROUGH SUN BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 15-20 KT LATE SUN AND INTO WED. GIVEN THE INCREASING WIND SPEEDS OVER A LARGE ATLC FETCH AREA AND THE EXPECTED LONG DURATION...THE SEAS IN THE FAR NW PORTION E OF NE FLORIDA SHOULD MAX OUT TO AROUND 12 OR 13 FT TONIGHT AND SUN PER WAVEWATCH GUIDANCES. ACCORDING TO THE GUIDANCES THESE SEAS THEN SUBSIDE TO 11 FT SUN NIGHT AND TO 8 OR 9 FT MON. ONCE THE LOW PRES FORMS ON THE TROUGH IT WILL PULL FURTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA LATE SUN AND INTO MON AS ADVERTISED BY GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS. THE LOW WILL LEAVE BEHIND A TROUGH OVER THE SE PORTION OF THE AREA TUE AND WED. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL WEAKEN TO A TROUGH TUE. ALTHOUGH STRONG TO GALE FORCE WINDS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE VERY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT JUST TO THE N OF THE FORECAST ZONES AS THE LOW MOVES NNE...THE RESULTANT NE SWELLS WILL SPREAD SEAS MAXING OUT TO 8 FT N OF 28N AND E OF THE STATIONARY FRONT/TROUGH. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECAST IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. SW N ATLANTIC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE