000 AGXX40 KNHC 160800 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 100 AM EST FRI NOV 16 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... LATEST AND RECENT BUOY AND OIL RIG PLATFORM OBSERVATIONS SHOW GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AS A HIGH PRES RIDGE...ANCHORED BY STRONG HIGH PRES OVER THE UPPER MID-WEST...EXTENDS SSW TO OVER THE NW AND CENTRAL GULF PORTIONS. THE OBSERVATIONS SHOW RATHER LOW SEA HEIGHTS... WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 2-3 FT IN THE EASTERN...CENTRAL PORTIONS AND OVER MUCH OF THE NW SECTION OF THE GULF EXCEPT FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER SEA HEIGHTS OF 3-5 FT NEAR THE SRN TEXAS COAST AS BUOY 42020 AT 27N97W INDICATES. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM E OF NE FLORIDA SW TO ACROSS S CENTRAL FLORIDA AND TO NEAR 25N89W. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS...IN THE FORM OF STRATUS...SPREADING S ALONG AND INLAND THE NRN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. SIMILAR PATCHES OF CLOUDS ARE OVER THE WRN GULF S OF 28N AND W OF 93W ...MAINLY ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE DUE TO A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 23N97W 19N95W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND WEAK ISOLATED TSTM CELLS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE CLOUDS. THE WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS BROAD UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING THROUGH IT. ONCE SUCH TROUGH IS QUICKLY MOVING SEWD OVER MISSISSIPPI AND LOUISIANA. ANOTHER TROUGH IS JUST EXITING THE ERN GULF. THE TROUGH N OF THE GULF WILL SWEEP SE ACROSS THE NRN PART OF THE GULF TODAY...AND THROUGH SAT. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS TROUGH WILL INDUCE A SURFACE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT WEAK LOW PRES OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST. THIS FEATURE...MODELS TEND TO AGREE...WILL LINGER THROUGH SUN WITH THE RESULTANT PRES GRADIENT INCREASING THE NE FLOW OVER THE NE PORTION OF THE GULF BEGINNING SAT. THIS FLOW IS EXPECTED BE IN THE RANGE OF 15-20 KT PER GENERAL MODEL DEPICTION. THE FLOW SHOULD ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO AROUND 3-5 FT ...BUT SHOULD NOT LAST TOO LONG AS BY SUN AS THE CULPRIT TIGHT GRADIENT SHIFTS E OF THE GULF. THE 3-5 FT SEAS THEN LOWER TO 2-4 FT DURING SUN AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. WIND AND SEA CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE GULF REMAIN PRETTY MUCH UNCHANGED THROUGH THE PERIOD. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... THE HIGH RESOLUTION ASCAT PASS FROM 0222 UTC LAST NIGHT REVEALED A MOSTLY N-NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT OVER THE WRN PORTION OF THE SEA WITH AN EMBEDDED SWATH OF NW-N WINDS OF 15-20 KT WINDS CONFINED TO THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA S OF 15N AND W OF ABOUT 80.5W. IN ADDITION ...SHIP "PBIG" NEAR 10N81W JUST RECENTLY REPORTED NW WINDS OF 25 KT. ELSEWHERE PARTIAL ASCAT DATA ALSO FROM AROUND 0220 UTC SHOWED RATHER LIGHT TO MODERATE NE TO E TRADES THROUGHOUT. THE BUOYS ARE CURRENTLY REPORTING SEAS OF 3-5 FT...EXCEPT HIGHER SEAS OF 6-9 FT IN A N SWELL ARE EVIDENT IN THE NRN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC WHICH IS SLOW IN SUBSIDING. SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS BEEN HIGHLIGHTING..AND IS CURRENTLY SHOWING AMPLE DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONFINED TO THE SW PORTION OF THE WRN CARIBBEAN AND ALSO ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS MOISTURE IS IN THE FORM OF MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ON THE SE SIDE OF A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN...AND CONFLUENT FLOW FOUND IN THE LOWER LEVELS. CONVECTION IS ALSO ACTIVE OVER NW COLOMBIA DUE TO SURFACE LOW PRES THERE...AND ALREADY PRESENT DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE. FOR THIS FORECAST...EXPECT THE NLY FLOW TO CONTINUE IN THE WRN CARIBBEAN AS THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT THERE IS SUPPORTED BY BROAD TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER THE ATLC N OF THE GREATER ANTILLES... HIGH PRES CONTINUES IN THE FAR WRN ATLC (ALTHOUGH IT WEAKENS EARLY NEXT WEEK)....AND LOW PRES MOVES OFF NW COLOMBIA ACROSS THE ERN PART OF THE SW CARIBBEAN. TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SOME BEGINNING TONIGHT OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN AND NRN TROPICAL ATLC AND LAST UNTIL MON AS CENTRAL ATLC HIGH PRES SW. THE HIGH PRES THEN IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO WEAKEN DURING MON AND INTO TUE ALLOWING FOR THE NE-E TRADES TO DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT. SW N ATLC W OF 55W... THE PRELIMINARY 06 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR 31N77W SSW TO OVER S FLORIDA. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N68W TO 26N71W. WEAKER HIGH PRES IS PRESENT ELSEWHERE. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE S CENTRAL AND WATERS S OF 25N...AND BETWEEN 67W AND 73W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OVER THE SE PORTION. THE 0224 UTC HIGH RESOLUTION ASCAT PASS NOTED LIGHT N-NE WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL SECTION OF THE BASIN. BUOY DATA ALONG WITH A FEW SHIP OBSERVATIONS ALSO CONFIRM THE ASCAT PASS DATA. N WINDS OF 15-20 KT ARE NOTED IN THE FAR NW PART OF THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT DUE TO A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT THERE AS A RESULT OF HIGH PRES RIDGING WEDGED BETWEEN THE FRONT AND THE SE U.S. COAST. MAX SEAS THERE ARE UP TO 8 FT PER BUOY DATA. SEAS ELSEWHERE ARE 5-6 FT IN A NE SWELL...EXCEPT 2-4 FT SW OF THE BAHAMAS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH W OF THE AREA OVER THE SE U.S. WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE BASIN DURING THE WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR LOW PRES TO FORM ON THE WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS WILL KEEP THE NLY FLOW IN PLACE IN THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA. THE WINDS START TO DIMINISH SUNDAY...AS OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MODELS INDICATE THE BETTER HEIGHT FALLS AND PRES DROPS TO BE FARTHER EAST...NEAR 70W...AS THE WEAKENING MID/UPPER TROUGH OR CLOSED LOW SHIFTS EAST. THE 12Z GFS AND EARLIER ECMWF ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE UKMET SHOWING A SURFACE LOW FORMING BETWEEN BERMUDA AND NE FLORIDA BY LATE MON AND LIFTING N. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECAST IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. SW N ATLANTIC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE