000 AGXX40 KNHC 151703 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1200 PM EST THU NOV 15 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATE GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON...SOUTH OF A 1028 MB HIGH PRES OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SEAS RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 FT OVER MOST OF THE GULF...WITH 5 TO 6 FT WITH LINGERING SWELL IN THE FAR SW GULF. A BANK OF LOW CLOUDINESS IS EVIDENT OVER THE NE GULF FROM THE W CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...N OF A PERSISTENT STATIONARY FRONT STILL EVIDENT FROM OFF THE NE COAST OF FLORIDA ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE SE GULF. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE SE UNITED STATES AND NORTHERN GULF FRI INTO SAT...CUTTING OFF OVER THE SE UNITED STATES...WITH WEAK TROUGHING FORMING OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST SAT INTO SUN. THIS WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY ENHANCED NE FLOW OVER THE NE GULF BY LATE SAT...BETWEEN THE FORMING SURFACE TROUGH OFF NE FLORIDA AND THE REINFORCED HIGH PRES OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. WINDS DIMINISH AGAIN MON INTO TUE AS THE HIGH PRES SAGS SOUTH AND THE TROUGHING LIFTS NE ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... BUOY DATA INDICATE GENERALLY MODERATE TRADES PERSIST ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...ALTHOUGH SCATTEROMETER AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS SHOW WINDS UP TO 20 KT OVER THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN FROM NICARAGUA TO THE COAST OF PANAMA. CONFLUENT FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS ALONG WITH DIVERGENT FLOW ON THE SE SIDE OF AN UPPER TROUGH ARE MAINTAINING AREAS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN BETWEEN PANAMA AND JAMAICA. E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...BUOYS INDICATE N TO NE SWELL STILL COVERS THE WATERS N OF 18N. RIDGING OVER N CENTRAL ATLC IS EXPECTED TO BUILD THIS WEEKEND...ALLOWING TRADES TO INCREASE E OF THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW ADDITIONAL PULSES OF FRESH SWELL 8 TO 9 FT THROUGH SAT...POSSIBLY WITH TRADES 20 KT OR GREATER PUSHING W OF 55W TO THE NE OF THE LEEWARDS...THEN SUBSIDING AFTERWARD AS THE RIDGING WEAKENS. ELSEWHERE LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED. SW N ATLC W OF 55W... A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM 31N79W TO 28N80W. A NEGATIVELY TILTED MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS MIGRATING ACROSS THE COAST IS SUPPORTING WEAK 1018 MB LOW PRES N OF THE AREA OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ACTIVE N OF 30N W OF 77W ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE PASSAGE. BUOY AND SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW ONLY LIGHT TO MODERATE NE FLOW OVER MOST OF THE AREA. BUOYS ARE SHOWING NE TO E SWELL HAS SUBSIDED TO BELOW 8 FT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA W OF 65W...BUT PERSISTS IN EXCESS OF 8 FT E OF 65W. WHILE THE SURFACE TROUGHING OFF THE SE COAST WILL WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE UPPER SUPPORT LIFTS OUT...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A SECOND MORE AMPLIFIED MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES FRI...CUTTING OFF A MID/UPPER CYCLONE OVER GA/SC BY LATE SAT. THIS WILL DEEPEN THE SURFACE TROUGHING SLIGHTLY RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN NORTHERLY FLOW OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST. THESE WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH SUNDAY...AS OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MODELS INDICATE THE BETTER HEIGHT FALLS AND PRES DROPS TO BE FARTHER EAST...NEAR 70W...AS THE WEAKENING MID/UPPER TROUGH OR CLOSED LOW SHIFTS EAST. THE 12Z GFS AND EARLIER ECMWF ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE UKMET SHOWING A SURFACE LOW FORMING BETWEEN BERMUDA AND NE FLORIDA BY LATE MON AND LIFTING N. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECAST IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. SW N ATLANTIC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN