000 AGXX40 KNHC 141821 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 120 PM EST WED NOV 14 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR TAMPA FLORIDA TO 22N97W TO 18N94W WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH TONIGHT INTO THU. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 1530 UTC SHOWED FRESH TO STRONG WINDS PERSISTING NEAR THE VERACRUZ COAST W OF THE FRONT. BUOY AND ASCAT DATA FROM THE NW GULF INDICATE THE WINDS ARE DIMINISHING BELOW 20 KT AS THE PRES GRADIENT RELAXES. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH MIGRATING THROUGH THE NE GULF CURRENTLY WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ANOTHER TROUGH AMPLIFYING OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES FRI...BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED THROUGH SAT. THIS WILL SUPPORT REINFORCING PUSH OF HIGH PRES ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. GLOBAL MODELS DO NOT SHOW AN APPRECIABLE INCREASE IN WINDS OR SEAS HOWEVER THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... BUOY AND SCATTEROMETER DATA ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN INDICATE GENERALLY MODERATE TRADES OVER MOST OF THE REGION FROM 55W THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN. ONE EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA WHERE NORTHERLY FLOW TO 20 KT IS NOTED. WEAK JET DYNAMICS ALOFT IS AIDING RESIDUAL SHOWERS AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN S OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. A WEAK PRES PATTERN N OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN THE MODERATE TRADES THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BUOYS EAST OF LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS INDICATE THE 8 TO 9 FT NE SWELL OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAS DECAYED SOMEWHAT. ECWAVE AND WW3 OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES FRESH NE TO E SWELL IN EXCESS OF 8 FT WILL PULSE AGAIN OVER THE WATERS N OF ABOUT 15N THIS WEEKEND. SW N ATLC W OF 55W... TROUGH FROM 31N67W TO 1012 MB LOW PRES NEAR 29N67W TO 21N69W WILL MOVE N OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. A STATIONARY FRONT OFF NE FLORIDA WILL DISSIPATE INTO THU. BUOY DATA INDICATE A BROAD SWATH OF SEAS AROUND 8 TO 9 FT OVER MUCH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA OUTSIDE THE BAHAMAS. THIS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TROUGH THU. OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFYING OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES FRI...BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED THROUGH SAT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT SHOWING THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMING MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED TOWARD THE WEEKEND. THE UKMET REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE MODEL SHOWING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRES AREA OFF NE FLORIDA SAT. FORECAST FOLLOWS MORE CONSERVATIVE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATING DEVELOPMENT OF A TROUGH FROM THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH NE FLORIDA SAT INTO SUN. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING CYCLOGENESIS N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA BETWEEN THE CAROLINAS AND BERMUDA SUN INTO MON. THE MAIN IMPACT SUN INTO MON WILL BE FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE WINDS ALONG THE NE FLORIDA COAST BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND REINFORCED SURFACE HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECAST IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. SW N ATLANTIC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN