000 AGXX40 KNHC 121943 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 240 PM EST MON NOV 12 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... THE COLD FRONT FORECAST IN PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGES MOVED INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING. AS OF 18 UTC THIS AFTERNOON IT EXTENDED FROM MOBILE ALABAMA SW TO 26N96W WHERE IT THEN DROPS SW TO INLAND MEXICO JUST S OF TAMPICO. LATEST BUOY AND OIL RIG PLATFORMS REVEAL STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE NE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH HIGH ELEVATION ANEMOMETERS OF THE OIL RIG PLATFORMS REPORTING GUSTS TO GALE FORCE. THE 1614 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED A VERY SHARP WIND SHIFT ACROSS THE FRONT IN THE N CENTRAL GULF WITH SE-S WINDS OF 10-15 KT SHIFTING TO NE AT 25-30 KT BEHIND IT. WINDS ELSEWHERE ARE E-SE 10-15 KT...EXCEPT 15-20 KT IN THE SW GULF E OF THE FRONT AND E-SE 20-25 KT IN THE FAR SE GULF E OF 85W AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA. SEAS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 9-13 FT BEHIND THE FRONT N OF 25N...AND 7-9 FT S OF 26N. SEAS ELSEWHERE ARE IN THE RANGE OF 4-5 FT...EXCEPT 6-8 FT FAR SE PART S OF 24N E OF 85W AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ABUNDANT MOISTURE DRAPED NE TO SW IN THE FORM OF MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH AREAS OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS SUPPORTED BY A LARGE DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION S TO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE GULF. A RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN ATLC SW ACROSS THE NE GULF WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH TUE ALLOWING FOR THE COLD FRONT TO RAPIDLY ADVANCE EASTWARD. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE FRONT WILL REACH A PSN FROM NEAR APALACHICOLA PANHANDLE SW TO NEAR VERACRUZ MEXICO BY THIS EVENING...EXTEND FROM NE FLORIDA SW TO THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE TUE MORNING...AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT REACHES FROM TAMPA FLORIDA TO THE SW GULF TUE AFTERNOON. THE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE STRONG NE WINDS BEHIND IT WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO DIMINISH TONIGHT THROUGH WED. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH PULLING OFF TO THE NE OF THE REGION TUE AND TUE NIGHT...THE FRONT WILL LOSE FURTHER MOMENTUM CAUSING IT TO BEGIN TO SLOW ITS MOTION AND BECOME STATIONARY FROM NEAR FORT MYERS TO 26N90W TO BAY OF CAMPECHE WED...THEN UNDERGO A DISSIPATING STAGE THROUGH THU. THE N-NE 20-30 KT WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT BY LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED AS A NEW AREA OF HIGH PRES TO THE N OF THE GULF SLIDES E. WINDS IN THE FAR SW PART OF THE GULF WILL BE FROM THE NW TO N IN DIRECTION AT 20-25 KT WITH POSSIBLE WINDS OF 25-30 KT NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO LATE TUE AND WED BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 20-25 KT NEAR THAT COAST LATE WED AND THU...TO NE-E 10-15 KT FRI AND BECOMING VARIABLE 5-10 KT SAT. WINDS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA WILL HAVE BECOME NE AT 10-15 KT LATE IN THE WEEK INTO SAT. FOR SEAS...LATEST WAVEWATCH GUIDANCES LOOKED REASONABLE FOR MOST OF THE GULF WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NW PORTION BEHIND THE FRONT WHERE THE GRIDDED NWWIII LOOKED THE BEST AND THE ECMWF THE SECOND BEST IN HANDLING THE HIGH SEA STATE THERE ...AS BUOYS 42020 AT 27N94W AND 42019 AT 28N95W HAVE BEEN SHOWING EVEN HIGHER VALUES OF 12-14 FT DURING THE DAY. I BELIEVE THESE VALUES WILL LOWER THIS EVENING...AND MATCH BETTER WITH THE OTHER GUIDANCES FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST TIME PERIOD. BY THU ALL GUIDANCES IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SEAS SUBSIDE TO 3-5 FT...EXCEPT FOR 6-8 FT IN THE W PART OF THE SW ZONE BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 5-6 FT THU AND TO 3-5 FT FRI N OF 21N...AND TO 2-3 FT S OF 21N CONTINUING INTO SAT. SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 65W... THE 18 UTC PRELIMINARY SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS A TIGHT ISOBAR SPACING OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE BASIN...AND A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT HAT STRETCHES FROM NEAR 31N53W SW TO 24N62W WHERE IT BECOMES A SHEAR LINE FEATURE TO MONA PASSAGE PER THE 1432 UTC ASCAT PASS ALONG WITH NEARBY BUOY OBSERVATIONS. THE ASCAT PASS ALSO CAPTURED A VERY LARGE AND CONVINCING SWATH OF NE 20-30 KT WINDS W OF THE FRONT TO THE BAHAMAS. THE ASCAT PASS ALONG WITH A FEW SHIP REPORTS AND BUOYS 41047 AT 27.5N71.5W AND 41046 AT 24N68W HIGHLIGHTED NE-E 20-25 KT WINDS...WHICH ALSO SPREAD W FROM THE BAHAMAS TO STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THE REPORTS ARE INDICATING SEAS OF 9-10 FT IN A NE SWELL BETWEEN THE FRONT/SHEAR LINE AND THE BAHAMAS...AND 8 FT TO THE N AND SW OF THE BAHAMAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ALONG AND SE OF THE FRONT/SHEAR LINE...AND ARE BEING ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL KEEP CONSISTENCY WITH RECENT ONES IN FORECASTING U.S. E COAST HIGH PRES TO BEGIN TO SHIFT ENE THROUGH TUE WHILE WEAKENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE APPROACHING GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE FAR NW WATERS TUE AFTERNOON BEFORE SLOWING DOWN. THE FRONT WILL THEN DRIFT S TO A PSN FROM THE NW BAHAMAS TO CENTRAL FLORIDA TUE AND TUE NIGHT WHILE DISSIPATING. THE STATIONARY FRONT AND SHEAR LINE OVER THE SE WATERS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN INTO A TROUGH THROUGH WED AS IT MOVES WESTWARD TOWARDS THE SE BAHAMAS FRI...THEN DISSIPATE LATE FRI INTO SAT. WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT OVER THE NW PORTION ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME NE 20 KT TUE THROUGH THROUGH FRI WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. WINDS AND SEAS ELSEWHERE DIMINISH WED THROUGH FRI...HOWEVER NE SWELLS WILL ALLOW FOR SEAS OF 6-8 FT TO PLAGUE MOST OF THE BASIN EXCEPT SW OF THE BAHAMAS DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. SEAS SW OF THE BAHAMAS SUBSIDE TO 4-6 FT MON NIGHT INTO TUE AND CONTINUE AT THAT RANGE THROUGH FRI. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... STRONG WESTERN ATLC HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT...ALTHOUGH NOT AS TIGHT AS OBSERVED IN PREVIOUS DAYS... OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALLOWING FOR NE-E WINDS OF 15-20 KT THERE N OF ABOUT 11N. THE SEA STATE ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING ALONG WITH RECENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOWED MAX VALES OF UP TO 8 FT IN THE SW PORTION OF THE SEA...AND 8-9 FT IN N-NE SWELLS IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC. WITH THE ATLC RIDGE FORECAST TO PULL FURTHER TO THE ENE OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HRS AS STATED ABOVE...EXPECT THESE WIND AND SEAS CONDITIONS TO LOWER THROUGH THE PERIOD. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECAST IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. SW N ATLANTIC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE