000 AGXX40 KNHC 091856 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 PM EST FRI NOV 09 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... HIGH PRES LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN ALABAMA EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. LATEST SCATTEROMETER...SHIP... AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS DEPICT 10-15 KT NE TO E WINDS E OF 90W. SLY RETURN FLOW IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. SEAS ARE GENERALLY 2 TO 4 FT...EXCEPT 4 TO 5 FT OVER THE NW CORNER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE CAROLINAS IN ABOUT 24 HOURS THEN INTO THE WESTERN ATLC BY LATE SAT. AT THE SAME TIME...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS TEXAS. PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRES AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER TEXAS WILL BRING AND INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. EXPECT WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT AND BUILDING SEAS OF 6-8 FT ACROSS THE MUCH OF THE GULF...INCLUDING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GULF WATERS MON MORNING FOLLOWED BY NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS TO 10 FT ACROSS THE SW GULF WHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT EASTWARD...EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO 25N94W TO 19N95W BY MON NIGHT...THEN FROM N FLORIDA TO 23N95W TO 19N95W TUE MORNING...WHERE IT WILL STALL AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BY WED. A FRONTAL TROUGH IS FORECAST BY THE COMPUTER MODEL TO LINGER OVER THE SW GULF THROUGH THU. SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 65W... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N60W TO 20N71W. SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NOTED ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT OVER THE SE FORECAST WATERS. LATEST SCATTEROMETER...SHIP...AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS DEPICT FRESH WINDS N OF 27N W OF THE FRONT WITH BUILDING SEAS TO 10 FT IN N SWELL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD N OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND WHICH WILL RESULT IN A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND FRESH TO STRONG WINDS PREVAILING OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST REGION THIS WEEKEND. ACCORDING TO THE MARINE GUIDANCE...SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 8 TO 11 FT E OF THE BAHAMAS LATE SUN INTO MON. WINDS WILL THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM W TO E AS THE HIGH PRES CENTER CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM HAITI ACROSS JAMAICA INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN TO NEAR 12N82W. SCATTEROMETER DATA...AND SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW FRESH TO STRONG WINDS W OF THE FRONT. MODERATE TRADEWINDS ARE SEEN OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. SEAS ARE GENERALLY 6 TO 9 FT W OF FRONT...3 TO 5 FT OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS AND 4 TO 6 FT OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD AND DISSIPATE LATER TODAY. HIGH PRES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL MOVE FROM THE SE CONUS INTO THE WESTERN ATLC BY SAT. AS A RESULT...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL FRESHEN THE TRADEWIND FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS THROUGH SUN BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH ON MON. EAST OF AREA...A SURFACE TROUGH...INTERACTING WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...IS ALONG 37W/38W FROM 13N TO 20N. THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING SOME SHOWER AND TSTMS ACTIVITY...MAINLY E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR DUE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE WWD. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECAST IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. SW N ATLANTIC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER GR