000 AGXX40 KNHC 031853 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 250 PM EDT SAT NOV 03 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... LATEST SURFACE ANALYSES FROM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON HAS A 1022 MB HIGH CENTER AT 27N88W WITH ITS ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDING E TO W ACROSS THE GULF. LATEST BUOY AND OIL RIG PLATFORMS SHOW RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS THROUGHOUT WITH VARIABLE WINDS OF 5 KT OR LESS IN THE NE PORTION AS WELL AS NEAR AND AROUND THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE HIGH. SE-S WINDS OF 10-15 KT ARE OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE GULF...AND E-SE 10-15 KT WINDS IN THE SW PORTION. THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW SEAS IN THE LOW RANGE...WITH SEAS OF 1-2 FT THROUGHOUT...EXCEPT 2-3 FT IN THE SW ZONES OF 17 AND 23...AND POCKETS OF 4-5 FT IN THE FAR WESTERN PART OF THE GULF. MODELS DEPICT THE HIGH CENTER AT 27N88W TO BEGIN TO DRIFT E THROUGH SUN...THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT NE EARLY NIGHT TO NE OF THE GULF AND TO JUST E OF N FLORIDA BY LATE SUN NIGHT WITH A RIDGE WSW TO ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE GULF. THE HIGH TRANSLATING E OF THE GULF WILL ALLOW FOR A COLD FRONT...MOST LIKELY STRONGER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONES...TO QUICKLY PUSH SE ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE GULF MON THROUGH TUE FOLLOWED BY INCREASING NW WINDS TO 20 KT...AND SEAS BUILDING TO 6 OR 7 FT AS ADVERTISED BY ECMWF AND NAH WAVE GUIDANCES. SEAS ELSEWHERE WILL BE AT 5 FT OR LESS IN THE CENTRAL GULF...AND 2-4 FT IN THE WESTERN AND FAR SW GULF PORTIONS. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS REVEALED A 470 NM WIDE SWATH OF MULTILAYERED CLOUDS THAT EXTENDS FROM EASTERN CUBA AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE SW TO 15N79W TO MUCH OF PANAMA. NUMEROUS TSTMS ARE CONFINED TO S OF 14N W OF 78W TO JUST INLAND THE COAST OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA. THIS AREA OF CLOUDS AND CONVECTIVE WEATHER IS ASSOCIATED WITH A PERSISTENT SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR 16N82W TO A 1010 MB LOW AT 10N81.5W. THE ASCAT PASS FROM 1420 UTC THIS MORNING MISSED THE TROUGH/LOW FEATURE BUT SHOWED AN ENHANCED PRES GRADIENT TO THE E OF THE TROUGH WITH NE-E 20 KT WINDS S OF 14N BETWEEN 72W AND 78W. SHIP "PBIG" NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AT 12N73W EARLY THIS AFTERNOON REPORTED E WINDS OF 20 KT. ELSEWHERE...PARTIAL ASCAT DATA ALONG WITH BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND A FEW SHIP OBSERVATIONS REVEAL MODERATE TRADEWIND FLOW ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. SEAS AREA GENERALLY 3-5 FT OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS...6-7 FT IN A N TO NE SWELL OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC. PATCHES OF MOISTURE IN THE ELY TRADE WIND FLOW ARE RESULTING IN ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN...AND OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TROPICAL N ATLC. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE PRESENT OVER THE SOUTHERN SECTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC. THE FORECAST FOR THIS UPCOMING AFTERNOON WILL MAINTAIN LITTLE OVERALL CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST TRENDS WITH RESPECT TO THE TROUGH/LOW FEATURE DRIFTING WESTWARD TOWARDS HONDURAS...COSTA RICA AND PANAMA THROUGH MON. A GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO ENTER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TUE EVENING...THEN BEGIN WEAKEN AS IT REACHES FROM EASTERN CUBA TO NEAR 15N82W BY LATE WED...AND STALL FROM NEAR HAITI SW TO NEAR 15N81W BY THU. FROM SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... THE 18 UTC PRELIMINARY SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A WEAKENING FRONTAL TROUGH OVER THE FAR SE WATERS FROM NEAR 22N65W SW TO JUST N OF HISPANIOLA. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 27N65W SW TO THE SE BAHAMAS...WHILE A COLD FRONT IS ALONG 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 75W AS SEEN ON SATELLITE VIS IMAGERY AND DENOTED ON THE ASCAT PASS FROM 1418 UTC THIS MORNING. LATEST SCATTEROMETER...SHIP...AND BUOY DATA CONTINUE TO DEPICT FRESH TO STRONG W-NW WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA WITH THE COLD FRONT OVER THAT AREA. THE SEA STATE ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING SHOWED 8-10 FT IN A NW SWELL OVER THIS PORTION OF THE BASIN. BUOYS JUST N OF THE BASIN CONTINUE TO REPORT SUCH SEAS. LIGHT NLY WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE BASIN...WHILE LIGHT NE-E WINDS ARE ARE NOTED TO SE OF THE WEAKENING FRONT AND ALSO S OF THE FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA. SEAS ARE 5-7 FT ELSEWHERE E OF THE BAHAMAS...AND 2-4 FT W AND NW OF THE BAHAMAS WITH SEAS OF 1-3 SW OF THE BAHAMAS. FOR THIS FORECAST...WILL FOLLOW DETERMINISTIC GFS GUIDANCE FOR THE BASIN IN RELATION TO FRONTAL POSITIONS AND ASSOCIATED WINDS AND SEAS...EXCEPT WILL INCORPORATE A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF WINDS THE WEAKENING FRONT OVER THE SE PORTION OF THE AREA WILL DISSIPATE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRES BUILDS E OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS. THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN TUE AND WED AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING LOW PRES...SUPPORTED BY A VERY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...FORECAST TO MOVE ENE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TUE. THIS LOW WILL THEN PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT INTO THE NW WATER TUE NIGHT AND WED FOLLOWED BY INCREASING NW-N WINDS OF 20-25 KT WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS TO 30 KT N OF 29N AND SEAS BUILDING TO POSSIBLY 8-11 FT. THE FRONT WILL BE PRECEDED BY INCREASING SLY WINDS...AND IS EXPECTED TO REACH A POSITION FROM NEAR 31N71W TO EASTERN CUBA BY EARLY WED EVENING ...AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT REACHES FROM NEAR 27N65W TO HISPANIOLA THU. HIGH PRES BUILDS SE ACROSS THE BASIN BEHIND THE FRONT. IT WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT NLY WINDS OVER THE AREA...EXCEPT OVER THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS WHERE A LINGERING TIGHT PRES GRADIENT SHOULD ALLOW FOR FRESH W TO NW WINDS AND SEAS UP TO POSSIBLY 9 FT. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECAST IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. SW N ATLANTIC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE