000 AGXX40 KNHC 021905 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 300 PM EDT FRI NOV 02 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... THE 18 UTC PRELIMINARY SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS WSW TO NEAR 24N86W...WHILE WEAK HIGH PRES WAS CENTERED IN THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE GULF AT 25N89W WITH AN ASSOCIATED E TO W RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF. LATEST BUOY AND OIL RIG PLATFORMS SHOW RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS THROUGHOUT WITH NW-N WINDS OF 5 KT OR LESS IN THE EASTERN GULF ZONES...AND S-SW WINDS OF 10 KT OVER THE WESTERN GULF ZONES. SE-S WINDS OF 10-15 KT ARE OVER THE SW GULF...WHILE WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT 5 KT AND LESS IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE GULF NEAR THE HIGH CENTER. THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW SEAS IN THE LOW RANGE...WITH SEAS OF 2 FT THROUGHOUT...EXCEPT 2-3 FT IN THE SW ZONES OF 17 AND 23. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT DISSIPATES TONIGHT OVER THE LOWER STRAITS OF CUBA AND ACROSS WESTERN CUBA. THE HIGH CENTER AT 25N89W RE-ALIGNS ITSELF E TO W ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF ZONES THROUGH SAT...THEN BEGINS TO SLIDE S SAT NIGHT AND SUN. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A COLD FRONT TO QUICKLY MOVE SE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF WATERS MON AND TUE...AND TO E OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TUE NIGHT. STRONGER HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS SEWD ACROSS THE AREA USHERING IN NW 20 KT WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN ZONES INTO WED WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 6 OR 7 FT PER THE CONVENTIONAL WWIII AND NAH WAVE GUIDANCES. SEAS ELSEWHERE WILL BE AT 5 FT OR LESS IN THE CENTRAL GULF...AND 2-4 FT IN THE WESTERN AND FAR SW GULF PORTIONS. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... BOTH VIS AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON REVEALED A 270 NM WIDE SWATH OF MULTILAYERED CLOUDS THAT EXTENDS FROM EASTERN CUBA AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE SW TO 15N79W TO NORTHERN PANAMA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OBSERVED WITHIN THIS AREA OF CLOUDS...WITH THE ACTIVITY MAINLY CONCENTRATED IN THE SW PORTION OF THE SEA IN ZONES 29N AND IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF ZONE 39. THE ASCAT PASS FROM 1444 UTC THIS MORNING SUGGESTED THAT A WEAK CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS AT THE TAIL END OF THE TROUGH AT 9.5N81W. THE LOW AND SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH ARE UNDER RELATIVELY LIGHT UPPER WINDS... AND A RATHER DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. THIS IS HELPING TO SUSTAIN THE CONVECTION CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED. ELSEWHERE OVER THE AREA...DRY CONDITIONS ALOFT ARE ALLOWING FOR ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND WEAK ISOLATED TSTMS TO BE ACTIVE OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN TROPICAL N ATLC AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. LATEST SCATTEROMETER...SHIP...AND BUOY DATA DEPICT A PREVAILING MODERATE TRADEWIND FLOW ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. SEAS AREA GENERALLY 3-5 FT OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS... 6-8 FT IN A MIXED NW AND NE SWELL OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC...AND 6-7 FT IN A NE SWELL IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF TROPICAL N ATLC ZONES. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR SIMILAR THINKING AS IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS WITH THE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT WEAK LOW DRIFTING WESTWARD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE DISSIPATING AS THE WIND FLOW PATTERN BECOMES PREDOMINATELY N-NE IN THE WESTERN SECTION OF THE CARIBBEAN IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PRES SURGING S FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN STILL IN EXISTENCE OVER THE BASIN WITH TWO FRONTAL BOUNDARIES EXTENDING IMPACTING THE FORECAST WATERS. THE FIRST ONE...NOTE AS WELL DEFINED...PER LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND PARTIAL ASCAT DATA FROM THIS MORNING EXTENDS FROM 23N65W SW TO THE N COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THIS FEATURE IS RAPIDLY LOSING ITS TEMPERATURE GRADIENT DIFFERENTIAL...AS WELL AS IT ASSOCIATED PRES GRADIENT WITH LIGHT WINDS ON EITHER SIDE OF IT. THE SECOND ONE IS MORE PRONOUNCED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND IS ANALYZED ON THE 18 UTC PRELIMINARY SURFACE ANALYSIS TO EXTEND FROM BERMUDA SW TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND WEAKENING TO S FLORIDA. LATEST SCATTEROMETER...SHIP...AND BUOY DATA CONTINUE TO DEPICT FRESH TO STRONG W-NW WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA W OF THE SECOND BOUNDARY TO ABOUT 73W...AND E OF THE FRONT N OF 28N. THE SEA STATE ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING SHOWED 8-12 FT IN A NW SWELL OVER THIS PORTION OF THE BASIN. BUOYS JUST N OF THE BASIN CONTINUE TO REPORT SUCH SEAS. LIGHT NLY WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE W OF THE FRONT...WHILE LIGHT NE-E WINDS ARE ARE NOTED E OF THE FIRST FRONT. SEAS ARE 4-7 FT ELSEWHERE W OF THE SECOND FRONT N AND NE OF THE BAHAMAS...AND 1-3 SW OF THE BAHAMAS. SEAS ARE 6-8 FT IN MIXED NE AND NW SWELLS BETWEEN BOTH FRONTS N OF 26N ...AND 6-7 FT IN MIXED NE AND NW SWELLS SE OF THE FIRST FRONT. WILL FOLLOW DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GFS/ECMWF MODEL CONTINUITY FOR THIS FORECAST WITH RESPECT TO FRONTAL POSITIONS AND MOTIONS ACROSS THE AREA. THE FIRST FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE E THROUGH SAT AS THE SECOND FRONT CATCHERS UP TO IT. THE MERGED FRONT WILL THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVER THE SE PORTION SUN INTO MON AS HIGH PRES BUILDS E OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS. THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN TUE AND WED AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING LOW PRES...SUPPORTED BY A VERY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...FORECAST TO MOVE ENE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. THIS LOW WILL THEN PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT INTO THE NW WATER TUE NIGHT AND WED FOLLOWED BY INCREASING NW-N WINDS OF 20-25 KT WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS TO 30 KT N OF 29N AND SEAS BUILDING TO POSSIBLY 8-11 FT. THE FRONT WILL BE PRECEDED BY INCREASING SLY WINDS...AND IS EXPECTED TO REACH A POSITION FROM NEAR 31N71W TO EASTERN CUBA BY EARLY WED EVENING FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRES THAT BUILDS ESE ACROSS THE AREA. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECAST IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. SW N ATLANTIC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE