000 AGXX40 KNHC 311750 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT WED OCT 31 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... HIGH PRES IN CENTRAL WATERS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND DRIFT SLOWLY SE THROUGH THU NIGHT...THEN SHIFT NE REACHING THE NE GULF BY LATE SAT...AND BE POSITIONED NE OF THE AREA SUN WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO NE MEXICO. THIS WILL SET UP ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE HIGH TO FORM ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE SW GULF ON MON. NW WINDS AT 15-20 KT OVER THE NE AND E CENTRAL WATERS LAST NIGHT DIMINISHED TO 15 KT JUST AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING...WITH SEAS 4-6 FT IN THE NW SWELL SUBSIDING TO 3-4 FT THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT ONE MORE WEAK COLD FRONT TO ROTATE E THROUGH THE N CENTRAL AND NE GULF TONIGHT INTO EARLY THU ACCOMPANIED BY A 15 KT W-NW-N WIND SHIFT...AND MAINTAINING SEAS OF 3-4 FT ACROSS NE PORTION. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT 5-10 KT WITH SEAS 1-2 FT ALL WATERS THU AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE FRI. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE NE WATERS E-SE RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE 10-15 KT ACROSS THE SW AND W CENTRAL WATERS FRI NIGHT-SAT NIGHT...EXCEPT 15-20 KT BRIEFLY DURING THE EVENINGS ALONG NW YUCATAN COAST. ANTICYCLONIC WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AGAIN AT 5-10 KT ON SUN. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT SWEEPS E ACROSS NLY WATERS ON MON TO THE N OF THE RIDGE WHICH WILL DISSECT THE AREA FROM NE-SW WITH A SURFACE HIGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RIDGE. BLENDED LATEST GFS/ECMWF WITH PREVIOUS PACKAGE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... NW-N SWELL RESULTING IN SEAS 3-4 FT ACROSS THE NW WATERS TO THE N OF 13N W OF 79W WILL SUBSIDE TODAY. LONG PERIOD N SWELL RESULTING IN SEAS OF 4-6 FT REACHING THE NE ATLC PASSAGES TODAY WILL ALSO SUBSIDE TONIGHT. THE DOMINANT SWELL DIRECTION WILL SHIFT TO NE BY FRI AS NE-E TRADES RESUME ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AND LONG PERIOD SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE NEAR 31N35W PROPAGATES SW INTO THE TROPICAL WATERS. CURRENTLY A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND ACCOMPANIED BY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION OVER THE WATERS S OF 15.5N BETWEEN 72-77W. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS FORECAST TO PERSIST MAINTAINING THE CONVECTION AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES SLOWLY W AND STALLS ALONG ROUGHLY 82W. THIS WILL SET UP CONDITIONS FOR WEAK SURFACE LOWS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHERN SEGMENT OF THE TROUGH AXIS BEGINNING THU NIGHT. THE GFS...UKMET AND ECMWF ALL HINT AT LOW DEVELOPMENT NEAR 11N82W...WITH THE UKMET THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND MAINTAINING THE CIRCULATION AS IT MOVES W INTO EASTERN NICARAGUA LATE SAT NIGHT-SUN MORNING. SINCE THE ECMWF AND GFS SOMEWHAT AGREE BUT DISSIPATE THE LOW LATE IN THE WEEKEND...WHILE THE NOGAPS DOES NOT DEVELOP A LOW AT ALL...POPULATED LATEST GFS/ECMWF WITH PREVIOUS PACKAGE FOR GRIDS. SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... AN INITIAL COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR 31N68W TO E CUBA AND A SECONDARY SURGE EXTENDS FROM 31N77W TO CENTRAL FL. ASSOCIATED S-W WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE NW PORTION SINCE YESTERDAY EVENING PER BUOY NETWORK...THUS DROPPED WINDS TO 20-25 KT AND SEAS 8-12 FT FOR THIS MORNINGS PACKAGE. STILL EXPECT TO SEE AT LEAST ONE MORE W-NW 20-25 KT COLD FRONTAL SURGE MOVING OFF SE CONUS ON THU WITH THE FRONT REACHING FROM BERMUDA TO WINDWARD PASSAGE FRI NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH W OF THIS BOUNDARY OVER THE WEEKEND AS A WEAK SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS FROM THE NE GULF TO OVER NE FL WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING E ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL WATERS N OF THE BAHAMAS BY SUN NIGHT. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL RACE NE EARLY NEXT WEEK REACHING NEAR BERMUDA MON NIGHT WITH THE RIDGE RE-ORIENTATING SW TO CENTRAL FL GRADUALLY REDIRECTING DOMINATE W SWELL TO N-NE NEXT WEEK. BLENDED GFS/ECMWF WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECAST IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. SW N ATLANTIC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER NELSON