000 AGXX40 KNHC 261855 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 255 PM EDT FRI OCT 26 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... THE HUGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE SANDY IN THE SW N ATLC EXTENDS WELL INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.... WITH N TO NNE WIND 20-25 KT E OF 85W...AND SEAS 8-12 FT IN THE W PORTION OF THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. NLY FLOW 10-15 KT OTHERWISE PREVAILS FROM 90W TO 85W WITH SEAS 3-6 FT. THESE CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT NOW MOVING SE THROUGH TEXAS COASTAL WATERS CONTINUES SE AND NLY FLOW BEHIND FRONT MERGES WITH FRESH NORTHERLIES E OF 85W. NW JOG OVERNIGHT OF SANDY WILL INDUCE A NW COMPONENT OF WINDS ACROSS ERN CARIB...WITH WINDS BUILDING 20-30 KT...AND SEAS BUILDING 6-9 FT EXCEPT TO 12 FT IN THE STRAITS. AM USING THE ECMWF SOLUTION FOR FIRST 48 HOURS...AT LEAST...AS THIS IN LINE WITH CURRENT NHC FORECAST FOR SANDY. ECMWF SHOWS FRONT REACHING FROM NEAR SANIBEL ISLAND TO SW GULF BY 12Z SUN...AND THEN DISSIPATING FROM ANDROS ISLAND BAHAMAS TO NRN YUCATAN AND BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 21N BY 12Z MON AS A REINFORCING SURGE OF COOLER AIR W OF SANDY WILL PUSH S INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. SEAS EXPECTED 6-9 FT W PORTIONS BEHIND FRONT SUN-MON...AND 7-8 FT SE PORTIONS LATE SUN-MON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE GULF BY TUE AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE AREA. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 65W... HURRICANE SANDY CONTINUES TO DUMBBELL NW JUST OFFSHORE OF LITTLE ABACO ISLAND...AS INTERACTION WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER THE STRAITS CONTINUES. SANDY ALREADY TAKING ON SUB TROPICAL SATELLITE PRESENTATION...AND DVORAK ESTIMATES STILL NOT PROVIDING ACCURATE ESTIMATE OF INTENSITY. FORWARD MOTION HAS SLOWED TO 5 KT ATTM AND IS ALLOWING FOR EXCESSIVE WAVE GROWTH AGAINST THE GULF STREAM OFF OF S CENTRAL FLORIDA...WHERE A 1524Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED N TO NNE WINDS 34-40 KT. BUOY 41114 IS NOW READING 16 FT WHILE 41009 NOW UP TO 24 FT. OPERATIONAL WW3 HAD REASONABLE SOLUTION FOR WAVE FIELD AT 12Z SEA STATE ANALYSIS HERE...BUT WAS WELL UNDERDONE ACROSS THE NE QUAD OF SANDY...WHERE OBS WERE EXCEEDING WW3 5-8 FT AND ALSO EXCEEDED WW3 ENSEMBLE MAXIMUM VALUES. SEAS ACROSS THE GULF STREAM BETWEEN BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA LIKELY 15-25 FT ATTM AS WAVE AGAINST CURRENT PERSISTS. THE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL EXPAND SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS AS SANDY MOVES N OF THE AREA AND CONTINUES A HYBRID OR SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION...WITH STRONGEST WINDS ROTATING CYCLONICALLY FROM NW QUAD INTO S SEMICIRCLE. THIS WILL GENERATE HUGE SEAS ACROSS THE W AND SW SEMICIRCLES AND INUNDATE COASTAL AREAS WILL TREMENDOUS SURF AND RUN UP CAUSING SIGNIFICANT TO EXTREME COASTAL EROSION FROM THE OUTER BANKS TO FLORIDA...WITH POTENTIALLY WORSE TO COME FOR THE NE U.S. I AM ATTEMPTING TO BLEND THE WW3 WITH THE EC WAVE TO ACCOUNT FOR ECMWF LIKE MOTION OF SANDY. CYCLONIC FLOW SURROUNDING SANDY IN EXCESS OF 20 KT WILL AFFECT ALL WATERS N OF 24N THROUGH MON MORNING. NW SWELL FROM SANDY WILL BEGIN TO REACH SE WATERS SUN MORNING AND REACH THE N COASTS OF HISPANIOLA... PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS BY SUN AFTERNOON...AND LIKELY PEAK AT 8-10 FT MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT 15-17 SECONDS. A MORE WNW COMPONENT INITIALLY WILL ALLOW THIS LARGE SWELL TO REACH W COASTAL PORTIONS OF ISLANDS FROM PUERTO RICO TO THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS SWELL ENERGY APPEARS SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT RUN UP AND COASTAL EROSION...ALTHOUGH WAVE HEIGHTS NOT AS LARGE AS THOSE FORECAST BY WW3. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE BASIN S OF SANDY...WITH NW WINDS 20-25 KT EXITING CENTRAL AND W CENTRAL CUBA AND DRIVING INTO JAMAICA AND WINDWARD PASSAGE...WHILE SW TO S WINDS 20-25 KT ARE FOUND N OF 16N BETWEEN THE MONA PASSAGE AND 74W. SEAS OFF THE S COAST OF HAITI WHERE 9-12 FT THIS MORNING AND HAVE FADED ONLY SLIGHTLY...WHILE SEAS THROUGH THE CAYMANS AND WINDWARD PASSAGE STILL 8-12 FT WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AREAS. LLVL CONVERGENCE FROM SW CARIB THROUGH HISPANIOLA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SCATTERED MODERATE TO DEEP CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS AND TRAINING ACROSS HISPANIOLA...AND ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY THERE NEXT 24 HOURS...WHERE RAINFALL TOTALS TO 10 INCHES AND HIGHER HAVE LIKELY OCCURRED IN PAST 24 HOURS. WINDS AND SEAS TO BEGIN TO ABATE ACROSS THE CARIB EARLY SAT AS SANDY LIFT FARTHER N..BUT WITH HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL CONTINUING ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND TO LESSER EXTENT PUERTO RICO THROUGH THE DIURNAL CYCLE SAT AFTERNOON. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL SUN...THEN STALL OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN...ACCOMPANIED BY MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN MON THROUGH TUE. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECAST IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. SW N ATLANTIC... .HURRICANE WARNING...ZONES AMZ111...AMZ113...AMZ117...AMZ119. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING