000 AGXX40 KNHC 170809 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 410 AM EDT WED OCT 17 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS MOVED S ACROSS THE ERN GULF AND IS DISSIPATING ALONG ABOUT LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO 25N 86W THEN HAS LIFTED N AND A WARM FRONT INTO SW LOUISIANA...AND WAS DEPICTED NICELY BY 0246Z ASCAT PASS. UPPER TROUGH SWEEPING ACROSS ARKLATEX INTERACTING WITH LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE FOR CONVECTION EMBEDDED WITHIN WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM PRECIP N OF 27N AND W OF 85W...ON BOTH SIDES OF WARM FRONT. SSE RETURN FLOW HAS SET UP ACROSS TEXAS COASTAL WATERS WITH BUOYS REPORTING 15 KT AND SEAS 3 FT. THIS SSE FLOW EXTENDS ACROSS MUCH OF WRN GULF W OF 93W. SHARPENING UPPER TROUGH TO SWEEP ACROSS MS VALLEY AND SE U.S. INCLUDING NE GULF TODAY...WITH NEXT UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO CENTRAL PLAINS TO SUPPORT ANOTHER COLD FRONT...EXPECTED TO REACH THE TEXAS AND SW LOUISIANA COASTS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THEN MOVE SE INTO NW PORTIONS THU AND REACH FROM FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION TO NEAR BROWNSVILLE BY 00Z FRI...WHERE IT WILL BRIEFLY STALL AND BECOME BENIGN. RETURN FLOW OF 10-15 KT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN AHEAD OF THIS FRONT TODAY AND TONIGHT EXCEPT 15-20 KT ACROSS THE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS WHERE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD 4-5 FT. VERY LARGE AND BROAD LOW MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FRI...WITH SECONDARY IMPULSE TO PUSH FRONTAL REMNANTS SE TROUGH FLORIDA FRI NIGHT...AND HIGH CENTER SINKING TO ALONG THE SE TEXAS/S LOUISIANA COASTS. I AM PREFERRING THE EUROPEAN SOLUTIONS WITH WINDS BEHIND THIS FRONT...AS FRONT IS SLIGHTLY FARTHER S THAN GFS...AND WINDS 15-20 KT WITH SEAS 3-5 FT FRI ACROSS NW PORTIONS BEHIND FRONT. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 65W... ACCELERATING HURRICANE RAFAEL MOVING NNE AND EXITING BERMUDA REGION WITH TRAPPED FETCH SCENARIO GENERATING VERY LARGE SEAS ACROSS ERN SEMICIRCLE. BUOY OBS ALONG E COASTAL WATERS SHOWING FADING ELY SWELL OFFSHORE OF FLORIDA...AND MODERATE SWELL E TO SE SWELL AT 12-15 SECS STILL MOVING INTO SE AND MID ATLC COASTAL ZONES. THUS STRONG SURF AND RIP CURRENTS TO PREVAIL TODAY. TROUGHING EXTENDING FROM S OF RAFAEL SSW TO HISPANIOLA IS REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY AND NOT ALLOW FOR HIGH PRES ACROSS THE ERN U.S. TO BUILD SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE AREA. THIS YIELDING NNE TO NE WINDS 10-15 KT ACROSS MUCH OF THE WATERS W OF 76W ATTM. AS RAFAEL LIFTS QUICKLY OUT OF THE REGION NEXT 24 HOURS...HIGH PRES WILL SHIFT ENE INTO THE NW ATLC AND ALLOW WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WATERS TO VEER QUICKLY E TO SE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN BECOMING SE TO S TONIGHT AND THU AHEAD OF GULFMEX COLD FRONT. PRESSURES REMAINS LOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE W PORTION OF THE ATLC BASIN AND RESULTING PRES GRADIENTS WEAK. AS SUCH WINDS EXPECTED AT LESS THAN 15 KTS WITH MILD SEAS EXCEPT FOR FADING SWELL FROM RAFAEL. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... BROAD AND WEAK CYCLONIC LLVL CIRCULATION ACROSS THE CARIB CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE ERN CARIB E OF 68W...AND RESULTANT LINGERING CONVERGENCE BANDS ASSOCIATED WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE ISLANDS OF THE NE CARIB ONE LAST DAY WITH BANDS AND LINES OF MODERATE TO DEEP CONVECTION. HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NE WILL PUSH THESE CONVERGENCE BANDS W AND NW TODAY AND ALLOW MOISTURE TO INCREASE ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. WEAKENED TROPICAL WAVES AND/OR OTHER WAVES IN THE EASTERLIES WILL MOVE ACROSS S PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS AND INTO THE E CARIB NEXT 72 HOURS TO PRODUCE RENEWED CONVERGENCE. LIGHT WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS ACROSS THE BASIN THIS MORNING WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES RETURN TONIGHT AND THU. ELY WAVE ALONG 56W ATTM TO MOVE INTO E CARIB TONIGHT AND THU WITH 15 KT ESE TRADE WINDS BEHIND IT...RAISING SEAS TO 4-5 FT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MONSOON LOWS DEVELOPING ACROSS FAR SW AND W CARIB AND EXTREME ERN EPAC AND COULD ENHANCE TRADES TO THE N TO 15 KT POSSIBLY 15-20 KT SAT AND SUN. HOWEVER...GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN CHANGING EACH DAY AND SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THIS ATTM. HIGH PRES TO THE W OF RAFAEL WILL MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT NLY FLOW FOR SWELL GENERATION TO CREATE NLY SWELL MOVING THROUGH THE REGIONAL ATLC WATERS AND INTO CARIB VIA ATLC PASSAGES THROUGH LATE THU BEFORE ENDING. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECAST IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. SW N ATLANTIC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING