000 AGXX40 KNHC 161850 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 245 PM EDT TUE OCT 16 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... THE SURFACE ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING SHOWS A RATHER WEAK PRES PATTERN OVER THE AREA WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING ALONG A PSN FROM JUST S OF TAMPA TO NEAR 27N91W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO INLAND SOUTHERN TEXAS WHERE A 1011 MB LOW IS ANALYZED. BOTH BUOY OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH A FEW SHIP OBSERVATIONS SHOW NE WINDS OF 10-15 KT N OF THE FRONT E OF 91W...AND E-SE WINDS OF 10 KT N OF THE FRONT W OF 91W. WINDS ELSEWHERE ARE NE 10-15 KT E OF 89W...AND NE-E TO VARIABLE AT TIMES AT 5-10 KT W OF 89W. SEAS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 2-4 FT THROUGHOUT WITH THE 4 FT MAXES OBSERVED IN THE NE AND FAR WRN PORTION. ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE NE FLOW ARE EVIDENT OVER THE SE PORTION OF THE GULF. NWP MODELS ARE IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH A POSITION FROM FROM SW FLORIDA TO NEAR 25N91W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATES TONIGHT. THE WRN PORTION WILL LINGER IN THE FAR WRN PART OF THE GULF THROUGH WED. FOLLOWING GFS MOISTURE GUIDANCE...THE WRN SEGMENT OF THE FRONT THEN BEGINS TO LIFT BACK N IN RETURN SLY FLOW WHILE DISSIPATING THROUGH WED NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL RIDE ENE ALONG AN ACTIVE SRN STREAM BRANCH TO ENHANCE PRECIPITATION ALONG AND S OF THE WRN FRONTAL SEGMENT INTO WED THEN BEGIN TO ADVECT EWD IN RESPONSE TO SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE GULF. THIS NEXT FRONT IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST EARLY THU... THEN QUICKLY REACH A POSITION FROM NE FLORIDA TO NEAR 26N90W TO FAR NE MEXICO BY EARLY FRI...FROM NEAR TAMPA FLORIDA TO NEAR 26N90W AND WEAKENING STATIONARY TO NE MEXICO BY SAT...THEN WASH OUT INTO SUN AS HIGH PRES BUILDS SE ACROSS THE AREA. NE WINDS OF AROUND 15 KT BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE NORTHERN CENTRAL ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON FRI AND INTO SAT WHILE THEN VEERING TO THE NE-E DURING SAT AND SUN. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LOW BEHIND THIS FRONT. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 65W... ACCELERATING HURRICANE RAFAEL WAS CENTERED NEAR NEAR 28.6N 64.5W 971 MB AT 1500 UTC MOVING NNE OR 020 DEG AT 21 KT WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT GUSTS 100 KT. RAFAEL WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE NNE AND EXIT THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING BEFORE 0000 UTC. BUOY 41049 LOCATED ABOUT 100 NMI E OF THE TRACK OF RAFAEL STILL REPORTED 25 FT SEAS AS OF 17 UTC. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N73W TO E-CENTRAL FLORIDA IS SWEEPING SE ACROSS THE SW N ATLC WITH FRESHENING NLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. FRONT QUICKLY SWEEPS SE AND WEAKENS BY WED FROM BERMUDA TO 28N75W. VERIFYING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FROM 12 UTC TODAY REPRESENTED A GOOD FORECAST BY THE GFS FROM 72 HOURS AGO...THUS GFS AND OFFICIAL FORECAST WEIGHED HEAVILY IN THE GFE GRIDS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA EARLY FRI AND WILL SLOW IN FORWARD SPEED AS THE NWP MODELS AGREE ON A STRONGLY NEG TILT TROUGH DIVING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY 00Z FRI WHICH REACHES ITS FULL AMPLITUDE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BY 00Z SAT...BEFORE LIFTING OUT TO THE NE THROUGH SUN. AS SUCH THE FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N73W TO E-CENTRAL FLORIDA BY LATE SAT AND FROM 31N67W TO SE FLORIDA BY LATE SUN WITH MODERATE TO FRESH N AND NE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... LINGERING CONVERGENCE BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH RAFAEL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE E CARIBBEAN AND NE WINDWARD ISLANDS MAINLY IN THE FORM OF COPIOUS RAINFALL. AS RAFAEL SWEEPS NNE AWAY FROM THE AREA EXPECT THE BANDS TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN. MARINEWISE...LARGE SWELLS FROM RAFAEL HAVE MIGRATED S AND W TOWARDS THE NE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES AND FAR NW PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. SEAS OF 6-8 FT IN SWELLS ARE IMPACTING THE PASSAGES AND ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO. THE SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE THROUGH WED...AND BY THEN A VERY WEAK PRES PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH DAY 5 (SUN) ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA WITH MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS VERY LOW TO 1-3 FT OR LESS. AN E SWELL WILL BRING SEAS OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC BUILDING TO 5-7 FT THU INTO FRI...THEN SUBSIDE TO 4-5 FT SAT AND SUN. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECAST IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. SW N ATLANTIC... .TROPICAL STORM WARNING E OF 67W EARLY TONIGHT...AMZ115. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE/COBB