000 AGXX40 KNHC 160814 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 414 AM EDT TUE OCT 16 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... WEAK AND NEARLY BENIGN FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKING SLOWLY S ACROSS NE GULF ATTM...WHILE ALREADY STATIONARY ALONG THE S TEXAS COAST...WITH WINDS ALREADY VEERING ENE BEHIND FRONT W OF 87W. SEAS 3-4 FT FAR W SECTIONS N OF FRONT. NLY FLOW AROUND 10 KT PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN...S OF THE FRONT...AND E OF 92W...WHERE TUTT AND OLDER FRONTAL BOUNDARY OF SEVERAL DAYS AGO STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL BAHAMAS INTO NW CARIB...AND VERY BROAD AND WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS CARIB BASIN SW OF RAFAEL HAS COMBINED TO INDUCE THIS UNUSUAL SCENARIO S OF THE GULF FRONT. BUOY 42001 HAS BEEN FLUCTUATING AT 4-5 FT PAST FEW HOURS SUGGESTING FLOW HAS BEEN MORE LIKE 15 KT IN RECENT HOURS...WITH WW3 GUIDANCE (AND GFS) NOT DEPICTING THIS PATTERN CORRECTLY. FRONT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY ACROSS S TEXAS COAST WHILE SINKING S ACROSS E PORTIONS...REACHING NEAR FT MYERS BY THIS EVENING...AND THEN DISSIPATING FROM NEAR NAPLES AND SE PORTIONS WED EVENING. BRIEF N TO NE WIND AROUND 15 KT ACROSS NE GULF THIS MORNING BEHIND SINKING BOUNDARY WILL KICK UP SEAS 3-4 FT BEFORE WINDS QUICKLY VEER ELY LATE TONIGHT AND MODERATE RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS W PORTIONS. S TO SE WINDS WILL THEN PREVAIL W OF 95W THROUGH EARLY THU IN ADVANCE OF NEXT FRONT...WHILE VERY LIGHT WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. SLY WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS LIKELY TO REACH NEAR 20 KT WITH DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT AND RAISE SEAS TO 5 FT ALONG THE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. GFS SOLUTION OF NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY THU-FRI HAS GRADUALLY BEEN SHIFTING IN LINE WITH EUROPEAN MODELS...AND AM STILL PREFERRING THIS CONSENSUS SOLUTION OF 15-20 KT NELY WINDS BRIEFLY BEHIND FRONT LATE THU NIGHT-EARLY FRI MORNING ACROSS NW PORTIONS. THE FRONT WILL REACH FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO NEAR 26.5N97W BY FRI MORNING...AND THEN WASH OUT FROM NEAR TAMPA FLORIDA TO WEAKENING STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS UPPER TEXAS COAST SAT AFTERNOON. NE WINDS ALONG BOUNDARY SAT WILL BUILD SEAS 3-4 FT POSSIBLY 5 FT...BUT OTHERWISE LIMITED FETCH AREA AND VEERING WINDS WILL LIMIT WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 65W... HURRICANE RAFAEL LIFTING N ACROSS FAR E PORTIONS OF OFFSHORE ZONES...WITH SUFFICIENTLY LARGE ENOUGH WIND FIELD DURING ITS RECENT EVOLUTION TO PRODUCE A HUGE AREA OF 12 FT SEAS...AS FAR AS 420 NM IN NW QUADRANT. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION TO THE W AND SW OF RAFAEL YIELDING LIGHT CYCLONIC WINDS W OF 70W...WITH NLY FLOW SPILLING DOWN S FLORIDA COAST AND INCREASING TO 10-15 KT INTO THE STRAITS. NE WIND SWELL OF RECENT DAYS FADING ACROSS E COASTS OF FLORIDA AND SE U.S. AND BEING REPLACED ATTM BY SELY SWELL FROM RAFAEL...REACHING ALL THE WAY UP THE COAST INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND. PEAK ENERGY EXPECTED TO BEGIN HITTING E COAST FROM CAPE COD TO SRN FLORIDA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. BUOY 41047 CURRENTLY REPORTING SE SWELL 13.5 FT AT NEAR 14 SECS AND IS BEST INDICATOR OF STRONG SWELL THAT WILL IMPACT THE COASTS NEXT FEW DAYS...YIELDING COASTAL FLOODING IN PRONE AREAS...LARGE AND STRONG SURF...AND WIDESPREAD STRONG RIP CURRENTS. RIP CURRENT RISK WILL NOT BE HIGH...IT IS GUARANTEED IN THIS SCENARIO ALONG EXPOSED COASTS AND SHORELINES. OTHERWISE...N TO NW FLOW 10-15 KT AND LESS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS WATERS W OF 70W TODAY AS RAFAEL LIFTS OUR OF AREA...AND EXITS TO THE NE TONIGHT...WITH WINDS QUICKLY SUBSIDING EASTERN ZONES...AND SEAS GRADUALLY ABATING THROUGH 72 HOURS. WEAK BOUNDARY IN GULF OF MEXICO IS PUSHING OFF NE COAST OF FLORIDA ATTM AND EXPECTED TO REACH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF STATE TO NEAR 31N73W BY 00Z THIS EVENING THEN FROM JUST E OF BERMUDA TO NEAR PALM BEACH...WHERE IT WILL DISSIPATE...WED EVENING. HIGH PRES MOVING OFF NE U.S. BEHIND FRONT WED-THU WILL PRODUCE VEERING WIND FLOW ACROSS ENTIRE AREA LATE WED AND THU WITH MODERATE E TO SE WINDS DEVELOPING IN ADVANCE OF NEXT GULF OF MEX FRONTAL SYSTEM. GFS HAS HANDLED TIMING OF RAFAEL BEST BUT BEYOND 72 HOURS AM USING A MODEL BLEND LEANING STRONGLY ON EUROPEAN MODELS...AS GLOBAL MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ATTM. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... LINGERING CONVERGENCE BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH RAFAEL WILL CONTINUE TO DUMP HEAVY RAINFALL ON NE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE CONVERGENCE SHIFTS N WITH RAFAEL TONIGHT. N SWELL FROM RAFAEL HITTING NE CARIB ISLANDS AT ABOUT 4-5 ATTM AND MOVING THROUGH CARIBBEAN PASSAGES...AND SHOULD PEAK THIS MORNING BEFORE SLOWLY FADING TODAY. OTHERWISE...LIGHT CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN YIELDING SLIGHT SEAS. SERIES OF ELY WAVES AND/OR VERY WEAK TROPICAL WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS NEXT FEW DAYS TO MAINTAIN SCATTERED SHALLOW TO MODERATE CONVECTION S OF 16-17N. GFS SEEMS A BIT FAST WITH THESE WAVES AND HAVE OPTED FOR SLOWER EURO SOLUTIONS. TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING 50W ATTM HAS BECOME VERY POSITIVELY TILTED WITH SOUTHERN PORTION INTERACTING WITH DEEP LAYERED TUTT TROUGHING DIGGING INTO THE TROPICS ALONG 45W. THUS N PORTION OF WAVE LIKELY TO SHEAR AWAY AND CONTINUE QUICKLY W...AND DAMPEN OUT UNDER STRONG HIGH PRES RIDGING IN WAKE OF LIFTING RAFAEL NEXT FEW DAYS. LIGHT ELY WINDS TO RETURN TO BASIN BY THU...WITH TROPICAL WAVE REMNANTS MOVING INTO E CARIB LATE THU-THU NIGHT...AND ELY WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT BEHIND THIS FEATURE...AND SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECAST IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. SW N ATLANTIC... .HURRICANE WARNING...AMZ115 AND AMZ121 E OF 68W THROUGH TONIGHT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING