000 AGXX40 KNHC 151846 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 245 PM EDT MON OCT 15 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... THE LATEST SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS HAS RELATIVELY HIGH PRES COVERING THE GULF WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE GULF BASED ON SURFACE/BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND SUBTLE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY FORM THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. BASED ON THIS DATA THE FRONT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI AND SE LOUISIANA...TO OVER THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE GULF AND TO INLAND TEXAS NEAR THE VICINITY OF CORPUS CHRISTI. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS JUST E OF THE FRONT. A 1020 MB HIGH IS INLAND MEXICO AT 20N98W. WEAK HIGH PRES CENTERED NW OF THE GULF OVER CENTRAL OKLAHOMA EXTENDS A RIDGE SSW ACROSS THE FRONT...AND COVERS THE WRN PORTION OF THE GULF W OF 90W. THE OBSERVATIONS SHOW N-NE WINDS OF 10-15 KT BEHIND THE FRONT...AND N 10-15 KT ELSEWHERE OVER THE AREA. SEAS ARE IN THE GENERAL RANGE OF 2-3 FT...EXCEPT FOR SMALL POCKETS OF 3-4 FT IN THE FAR WRN GULF NEAR CENTRAL TEXAS AS BUOY 42019 AT 28N95W INDICATES. THE TUTT AXIS EARLIER MENTIONED FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA SW TO GULF OF HONDURAS WHICH PRODUCED DEEP LAYERED NELY FLOW ACROSS THE EXTREME SE GULF...STRAITS...AND THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL HAS SHIFTED SE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA. THE NE WIND FLOW THROUGH THE STRAITS AND YUCATAN HAS DIMINISHED SOME. ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE NLY FLOW ARE EVIDENT OVER THE SE PORTION OF THE GULF. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN A DIMINISHING TREND IN THE SE GULF THROUGH TUE. MODELS ARE IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT REACHES A POSITION FROM NEAR TAMPA FLORIDA TO NEAR 26N89W...WHERE IT BECOMES WEAKENING STATIONARY NW TO INLAND CENTRAL TEXAS NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI. FOLLOWING GFS MOISTURE GUIDANCE...THE WRN SEGMENT OF THE FRONT THEN BEGINS TO LIFT BACK N IN RETURN SLY FLOW WHILE DISSIPATING THROUGH WED NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL RIDE ENE ALONG AN ACTIVE SRN STREAM BRANCH TO ENHANCE PRECIPITATION ALONG AND S OF THE WRN FRONTAL SEGMENT TUE INTO WED THEN BEGINS TO ADVECT EWD IN RESPONSE TO SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE GULF. THIS NEXT COLD FRONT APPEARS TO BE STRONGER IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO THE NLY FLOW BEHIND IT. MODELS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT IN TIMING AND FORECASTS POSITIONS OF THIS FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST EARLY ON THU...THEN QUICKLY REACH A POSITION FROM NE FLORIDA TO NEAR 26N90W TO FAR NE MEXICO BY EARLY FRI...AND FROM NEAR TAMPA FLORIDA TO NEAR 26N90W AND WEAKENING STATIONARY TO NE MEXICO BY SAT. N-NE WINDS MAY BRIEFLY REACH 15-20 KT NW OF THE FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL AND NW GULF WATERS FRI BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON FRI WHILE VEERING TO THE NE-E FRI NIGHT AND SAT. LIMITED FETCH AREA AND TIME WILL LIMIT WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 65W... THE PRELIMINARY 18 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A RATHER WEAK HIGH PRES AREA OVER SW N ATLC. IN THE WRN PART OF THIS AREA... A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 28N75W SE TO THE SE BAHAMAS. BOTH BUOY AND A FEW SHIP REPORTS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LONG NELY FETCH OVER THE W OF 70W WITH BUOYS REPORTING HIGH PEAK PERIODS. SEAS ARE IN THE 5-7 FT RANGE IN NE SWELLS N OF 26N AND W OF 74W ...AND 8-11 FT NE OF THE BAHAMAS. IN THE SE PORTION MUCH LARGER SEAS OF 10-16 FT ARE BEING OBSERVED BY BUOY 41046 AT 24N68W IN ADVANCE OF TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL. TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WAS CENTERED NEAR NEAR 23.1N 65.6W 983 MB AT 1500 UTC MOVING NW OR 345 DEG AT 8 KT WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT GUSTS 75 KT. RAFAEL WILL MOVE NW AND INTENSIFY TO HURRICANE STRENGTH BY EARLY THIS EVENING (70 KT GUSTS TO 85 KT) NEAR 24.5N 65.7W...THEN REACH NEAR 27.4N 64.9W TUE MORNING...THEN BEGIN TO TURN NE AND GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AS IT REACHES NEAR 30.9N 63.1W BY EARLY TUE NIGHT BEFORE EXITING THE AREA LATE TUE NIGHT. SEA STATE ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING REVEALED A CONTINUING INCREASING 12 FT SEA RADII ASSOCIATED WITH RAFAEL. THIS RADII IS FORECAST BY WAVEWATCH GUIDANCES TO EXPAND TO 420 NM IN THE NW SEMICIRCLE BY EARLY TUE. AS STATED PREVIOUSLY...SWELLS FROM RAFAEL WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE FLORIDA E COAST PRIMARILY N OF ABOUT 27N BEGINNING TONIGHT AND THROUGH MOST OF WED BEFORE SUBSIDING WITH SEAS PEAKING TO 9 OR 10 FT IN NE TO E SWELLS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW PORTION TONIGHT AND TUE THEN SLOWLY DISSIPATE. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA FRI...BUT WILL QUICK BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE NW BAHAMAS FRI AFTERNOON INTO SAT...AND BECOME STATIONARY FROM 31N71W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS SAT FOLLOWING THE GFS MEAN ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... LINGERING CONVERGENCE BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH RAFAEL WILL CONTINUE TO DUMP COPIOUS RAINFALL ON NE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON BEFORE CONVERGENCE SHIFTS N TUE NIGHT. WITH RAFAEL CONTINUING TO LIFT NW AWAY FROM THE AREA...THE RESULTANT LARGE SWELLS HAVE NOW MIGRATED S TOWARDS THE NE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES AND FAR NW PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. SEAS OF 6-8 FT IN SWELLS ARE IMPACTING THE PASSAGES AND ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO. SE-S WINDS OF 20-25 KT OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN SEA AND W PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC AS HIGHLIGHTED BY THE ASCAT PASS FROM 1414 UTC THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND TO 10-15 KT TUE AS THE CULPRIT PRES GRADIENT WITH RAFAEL SLACKENS. THE SWELLS SUBSIDE THROUGH WED...AND BY THEN A VERY WEAK PRES PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY 5 (SAT) ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA WITH MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS VERY LOW TO 1-3 FT OR LESS. AN E SWELL WILL BRING SEAS OF 4-6 FT TO THE ERN SECTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC WED...BUILDING TO 5-7 FT THU INTO FRI...AND SUBSIDE TO 3-5 FT SAT. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECAST IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .TROPICAL STORM WARNING...AMZ125 N OF 20N E OF 66W...AND AMZ127 N OF 21N W OF 63W THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. SW N ATLANTIC... .HURRICANE WARNING...AMZ115 AND AMZ121 E OF 68W THROUGH TUE NIGHT. 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