000 AGXX40 KNHC 140826 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 425 AM EDT SUN OCT 14 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NW ATLC EXTENDS SW INTO THE ERN U.S. AND NE GULF THIS MORNING...PRODUCING A STRONG PRES GRADIENT AGAINST THE OLD FRONTAL ZONE STRUNG OUT ACROSS THE SW N ATLC WATERS. STRONG NE FLOW 20-25 KT STILL BLOWING ACROSS THE S HALF OF FLORIDA PENINSULA AND ACROSS EXTREME SE PORTIONS OF GULF AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING...AS SMALL TUTT LOW SHIFT SW ACROSS WRN CUBA AND ENHANCED MOMENTUM TRANSPORT IN SAME DIRECTION AS MEAN LLVL FLOW. A 0207Z PARTIAL ASCAT PASS ACROSS FLORIDA AND ADJACENT WATERS SHOWED 20-25 KT ENE WINDS ACROSS THE STRAITS E OF 81W. THIS SUSTAINED WIND FLOW AGAINST THE FLORIDA CURRENT SHOULD BE KICKING UP SEAS BEYOND THE PREVAILING 6-8 FT IN THIS REGION...TO 10-12 FT WELL DOWNSTREAM WHERE CURRENT FACES WIND HEAD ON. A 20Z ALTIMETER PASS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL SHOWED 6-7 FT SEAS ON EITHER SIDE OF A NARROW ZONE OF 9 FT...LIKELY INDICATING THE RESULTANT WIND AGAINST CURRENT EFFECT. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT E NEXT FEW DAYS AS VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL THEN ERN U.S. AND PRES GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO RELAX THIS MORNING WITH WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT THROUGH THE STRAITS AND ALL OF THE GULF BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. DRY AND BENIGN COLD FRONT TO MOVE S TO SE ACROSS THE N AND NE GULF LATE MON THROUGH TUE...WITH FLOW BECOMING NLY...PARTIALLY INFLUENCED BU RAFAEL LIFTING N OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN AND INTO W CENTRAL ATLC. FRESH NLY FLOW BEHIND WEAK BOUNDARY MON NIGHT WILL BRIEFLY INCREASE WINDS TO NEAR 20 KT NE PORTIONS BEFORE ABATING TUE MORNING. NEXT FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE BASIN WILL ARRIVE TUE NIGHT...AND WE ARE TRENDING TOWARDS THE STRONGER WINDS NEAR 20 KT FORECAST BY GFS ATTM. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 65W... ELONGATED LLVL TROUGHING AND MERGED FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDS FROM 31N53W TO W CENTRAL CUBA....WITH 1030 NM HIGH TO THE N MAINTAINING TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WITH 20 KT PLUS WINDS CONTINUING ACROSS ENTIRE AREA NW OF BOUNDARY...AND RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASSES SHOWING AN ELONGATED ZONE OF 25 TO NEAR 30 KT WINDS YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLIER TONIGHT DAMMED UP ALONG THE OLD BOUNDARY. SEAS WITHIN THIS ZONE RUNNING 9-11 FT WITH MAX SEAS 12-13 FT JUST E OF THE NW BAHAMAS...WHERE A 1945Z ALTIMETER PASS YDA SHOWED 11-14 FT SEAS ALONG 74.5W. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...HIGH WILL SHIFT E NEXT FEW DAYS AND GRADIENT TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN TODAY...WHILE WINDS VEER MORE ELY AND DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT ACROSS MOST OF NW PORTIONS BY AFTERNOON. SEAS HOWEVER...WILL BE SLOWER TO FALL AS LONG FETCH HAS BEEN ESTABLISHED FOR OVER 36 HOURS. RAFAEL ALREADY LIFTING OUT OF CARIBBEAN AND WILL BEND A BIT NW NEXT 36-48 HOURS BEFORE ACCELERATING TO THE NE AHEAD OF E COAST UPPER TROUGH. NHC FORECAST FOLLOWING GFS SOLUTION IN TERMS OF TIMING...BUT SHIFTED A BIT TO THE W OF PREVIOUS RUNS IN ACCORDANCE WITH EURO MODELS. THIS TRAJECTORY WILL MOVE ACROSS E PORTIONS OF THE AREA...LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUE. STRONG AND BROAD WIND FIELD OF RAFAEL PARENT TROPICAL WAVE HAS ALREADY KICKED UP WINDS AND SEAS WELL REMOVED TO THE N AND NE OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH 8 TO 10 FT SEAS ALREADY S OF 26N E OF 70W ATTM...AND WILL BUILD TO 9-15 FT BY LATE AFTERNOON IN SE SWELL. ELY SWELL WILL SPREAD ACROSS ALL PORTIONS OF THE AREA E AND N OF BAHAMAS THROUGH LATE TUE AS RAFAEL LIFTS OUT OF THE REGIONAL WATERS. LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL IMPACT THE BAHAMAS AND E COAST OF FLORIDA BEGINNING MON NIGHT IN BAHAMAS AND EARLY TUE ACROSS FLORIDA. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... STLT IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWING RAFAEL ATTEMPTING TO WRAP UP CNVTN WITHIN INNER CORE...WHILE TJUA 88D OF RECENT HOURS SUGGESTS THE LLVL CENTER MAY HAVE TAKEN A SMALL CYCLONIC LOOP ALLOWING LLVL CENTER TO BEGIN TO MOVE IN CLOSER TO MID LEVEL TURNING AND THE ABUNDANT DEEP CNVTN ACROSS E SEMICIRCLE. THE ISLANDS AND LOCAL WATERS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE UNDER OCCASIONAL MCS'S TODAY...WITH HIGH PROBABILITY OF TORRENTIAL RAIN LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES...AND LIKELY ALREADY OCCURRING. STRONGEST WINDS ATTM REMAIN ACROSS THE ERN SEMICIRCLE AND LEAVING 12 FT SEAS MAINLY OUTSIDE THE CARIB BASIN AND ACROSS N PORTIONS OF TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. WAVE FIELD WILL SHIFT N AND NW NEXT 24 HOURS AS STORM LIFTS N TO NW AND DEEPENS...WHILE PULLING ITCZ ACROSS LEEWARDS AND ADJACENT ATLC WATERS. STRONG NE FLOW 20-25 KT ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF ABATE BY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRES SHIFTS ENE AWAY FROM REGION...AND SEAS THERE BEGIN TO FALL FROM 5-8 FT CURRENTLY...TO 4-6 FT BY SUNSET. OTHERWISE...LIGHT WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGHOUT THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS WEAK LOW PRES PREVAILS IN THE WAKE OF EXITING RAFAEL...YIELDING BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE WRN TWO-THIRDS OF THE BASIN. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECAST IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .TROPICAL STORM WARNING...AMZ025. SW N ATLANTIC... .TROPICAL STORM WARNING...AMZ119...AMZ121...AMZ125...AMZ127. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING