000 AGXX40 KNHC 120803 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 403 AM EDT FRI OCT 12 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... HIGH PRES RIDGE ACROSS EASTERN U.S. REMAINS IN PLACE EARLY THIS MORNING AND IS COMBINING WITH ELONGATED TROUGHING AND T.D. PATTY TO PRODUCE FRESH NELY FLOW ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS...WHILE RECENT ASCAT PASSES SHOW ENE WINDS 15-20 KT EXITING SW FLORIDA AND MOVING S OF RIDGE AND WWD ACROSS THE SRN GULF AND N OF THE YUCATAN. BUOY OBS ONLY SHOWING 4-5 FT ATTM...BUT BUOYS NOT IN STRATEGIC LOCATION TO REVEAL TRUE SEASTATE. SEAS ACROSS SE GULF AND OFFSHORE OF YUCATAN LIKELY 5-7 ATTM. RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN BY GLOBAL MODELS NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT REINFORCING 1030 MB HIGH MOVING INTO GREAT LAKES REGION SAT WILL MAINTAIN GRADIENT ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA...AND CONTINUE TO PRODUCE 15-20 KT NELY WINDS ACROSS THE SE GULF VEERING MORE ENE N OF THE YUCATAN. SICKLY LOOKING T.S. PATTY IS DRIFTING SSW ATTM...AND IF IT DOES NOT BECOME COMPLETELY SHEARED AND CONTINUE TO MOVE SW TOWARDS CUBA NEXT 48 HRS...IT WILL AID IN MAINTAINING GRADIENT. THIS BEING SAID...I PREFER THE ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH BUILDS SEAS 6-9 FT ACROSS THE FAR SE GULF AND STRAITS BY 00Z SUN...AND OFFSHORE SEAS OTHERWISE 4-5 ACROSS MOST OF THE REST OF THE BASIN...EXCEPT TO 6 FT ACROSS S TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. ECMWF ALSO FORECASTING 25-30 KT OF NE PB FLOW ACROSS STRAITS SAT EVENING...WHICH IS DIRECTLY AGAINST FLORIDA CURRENT AND COULD YIELD SEAS 10-12 FT BRIEFLY EARLY SAT NIGHT. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 65W... FRONTAL ZONE IS DRAPED JUST TO THE W OF T.S. PATTY WITH SHEARED CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NE OF THE LLVL CENTER. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NNE FLOW INDUCED BY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT SPILLING FROM W ATLC TO W OF PATTY AND THE NW BAHAMAS WHERE RECENT SHIP OBS SUGGEST SEAS TO AROUND 12 FT SOME 150 NM W OF PATTY AND WELL REMOVED FROM T.S. WIND FIELD. COMPLEX AND COMPLICATED SCENARIO EXPECTED NEXT 48-72 HRS AS DEVELOPING LARGE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING INTO LESSER ANTILLES IMPINGES UPON ELONGATED TROUGHING THAT PATTY IS EMBEDDED WITHIN. AFOREMENTIONED AND REINFORCING HIGH MOVING INTO GREAT LAKES REGION WILL FURTHER ENHANCE THIS NELY FLOW SAT AND SAT NIGHT TO MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG WIND FLOW AND SEAS 8-12 FT E OF BAHAMAS AND LIKELY 6-9 FT THROUGH AND IN LEE OF BAHAMAS. THE WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES ATTM WITH SURFACE LOW BETWEEN BARBADOS AND ST LUCIA STILL NOT YET CONSOLIDATING AS IT IS WORKING AGAINST VERY STRONG SHEAR 30-50 KT...A HENCE DISPLACEMENT OF CNVTN TO THE E. TUTT ACROSS THE NE CARIB IS FORECAST TO SHIFT NW AND WEAKEN NEXT FEW DAYS AND ALLOW SHEAR TO RELAX AND GIVE THIS SYSTEM A CHANCE TO DEVELOP INTO A T.C. MODELS SUGGESTING SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT AFTER THE CENTRAL CIRCULATION CONSOLIDATES ACROSS OR N OF THE ANEGADA PASSAGE AND ADJACENT ISLANDS SUN...THEN WILL MOVE N AND DEEPEN...BRUSHING E PORTIONS OF THE AREA. SELY SWELL CURRENTLY BEGINNING TO BE GENERATED E AND NE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL SPREAD INTO SE WATERS SUN. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE TROPICAL WAVE WAS BETWEEN BARBADOS AND ST LUCIA AT 06Z. BROAD 20-25 KT ELY WIND FIELD ACROSS THE N OF THIS WAVE AFFECTING CENTRAL PORTIONS OF TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS AND CARIB PASSAGES S OF ANTIGUA AND HAS PRODUCED SIGNIFICANT WAVE FIELD WITH BUOY 41101 PEAKING AT 12 FT EARLIER TONIGHT...NOW AT 10 FT...AND FRENCH BUOY 41099 RECENTLY REPORTING 10 FT AS WELL. THE LOW LOOKS TO BE MOVING NW ATTM...AND AS MENTIONED ABOVE...WILL LIKELY IMPROVE IN ORGANIZATION BY LATE TONIGHT OR SAT AS WIND SHEAR BEGINS TO WEAKEN. THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS A GOOD CHANCE TO DEVELOP TO A T.C. WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING FAVORABLE N OF THE EXTREME NE CARIB AS IT EXITS THE BASIN. OTHERWISE WINDS ARE LIGHT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN...WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW NORMAL NEXT FEW DAYS. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECAST IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. SW N ATLANTIC... .TS WARNING AMZ119. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING