000 AGXX40 KNHC 061755 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT SAT OCT 6 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A DISSIPATING SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE SW GULF WATERS. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAIL OVER THE GULF WATERS. LATEST SCATTEROMETER...SHIP...AND BUOY DATA DEPICT GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. SEAS ARE GENERALLY 2 FT OR LESS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST TONIGHT WITH FRESHENED WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO SOUTHERN TEXAS SUN MORNING...THEN REACH FROM N CENTRAL FLORIDA TO SOUTHERN TEXAS MON MORNING WHERE IT WILL STALL AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH MIDWEEK. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 65W... HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE FAR NW PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED ALONG A TROUGH E OF THE BAHAMAS ISLAND CHAIN. LATEST SCATTEROMETER...SHIP...AND BUOY DATA DEPICT LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS OVER THE NW PART OF THE AREA IN THE VICINITY OF THE RIDGE...AND GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA EXCEPT FRESH WINDS NW OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS LOCALLY TIGHTER. SEAS ARE GENERALLY 2 TO 3 FT OVER THE NW PART OF THE AREA AND 4 TO 6 FT E OF THE BAHAMAS...WITH SEAS 1 TO 3 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS. THE TROUGH AND LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL DRIFT WESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO DISSIPATE SUN...WITH THE TROUGH CONTINUING ITS WESTWARD TRACK. HOWEVER...RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE ADDED A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHEN/IF THIS LOW WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE GFS AND CMC KEEPING THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND DEEPENING IT FURTHER. WILL CONTINUE WITH CURRENT FORECAST FAVORING THE LESS AGGRESSIVE ECMWF AND UKMET AND WILL MONITOR FUTURE MODEL RUNS FOR MORE CONSISTENCY WITH THIS FEATURE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... BENIGN WEATHER CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF TWO TROPICAL WAVES OVER THE AREA...ONE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WHILE THE OTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. LATEST SCATTEROMETER...SHIP...AND BUOY DATA DEPICT GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADEWINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. SEAS ARE 4 FT ORE LESS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS AND 4 TO 5 FT ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH SUN. THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SUN AND MON...AND INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN TUE. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECAST IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. SW N ATLANTIC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AL