000 AGXX40 KNHC 021820 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 245 PM EDT TUE OCT 2 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SW WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT ARE NOTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE TO 10-15 KT LATER TODAY. LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF 15-20 KT NW WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...PARTICULARLY N OF 25N. THE FRONT WILL SLIGHTLY MOVE ACROSS THE SE PORTION OF THE GULF THIS EVENING THEN STALL FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE BIG BEND TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY WED AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THU INTO FRI. HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE GULF WATERS WED THROUGH SAT PRODUCING MAINLY A GENTLE BREEZE. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE N GULF STATES LATE SAT. SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 65W... WINDS ARE ON INCREASE OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A HIGH PRES RIDGE ALONG 31N. THE MOST RECENT ASCAT PASS AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOWED WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT W OF 75W WITH BUILDING SEAS TO AROUND 8 FT. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE FAR NW PORTION OF AREA WED AND THU. ELY WINDS OF 15-20 KT WILL PREVAIL ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AFFECTING MAINLY THE WATERS S OF 22N THROUGH THU. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN FRI AND WINDS WILL DECREASE FRI AND SAT. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... HIGH PRES NE OF AREA MAINTAINS E TRADES IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE IN EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH SEAS TO 10 FT. OTHERWISE ELY WINDS OF 10-15 KT ARE NOTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF BASIN THROUGH WED. WIND WILL DECREASE SOME ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY THU AS HIGH PRES MOVES WWD AND SLIGHTLY WEAKENS. EXPECT WINDS OF 20 KT OR LESS FRI AND SAT AS A WEAK LOW PRES SYSTEM DEVELOPS NE OF PUERTO RICO AND THE PRES GRADIENT RELAXES. A TROPICAL WAVE E OF THE AREA...CURRENTLY ALONG 53W...WILL MOVE INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC LATER TODAY AND ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES WED NIGHT AND THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THU AND FRI. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 925 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. THIS DISTURBANCE HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL E OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECAST IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. SW N ATLANTIC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER GR