000 AGXX40 KNHC 251856 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 255 PM EDT MON SEP 24 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... OBSERVATIONS FROM BOTH BUOYS AND OIL PLATFORMS ARE PRESENTLY SHOWING...AND HAVE HAVE SHOWN DURING THE MORNING NE WINDS OF 10-15 KT E OF 92W AND E-SE WINDS OF 10-15 KT W OF 92W. THE EXCEPTION IS IN THE SE PORTION WHERE NE-E WINDS OF 15 KT WERE SUGGESTED BY THE ASCAT PASS FROM 1608 UTC THIS MORNING. SEAS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 3-5 FT S OF ABOUT 26N...AND 2-3 FT ELSEWHERE EXCEPT 1-2 FT IN THE FAR NE PORTION AND 3-4 FT IN THE FAR W PORTION FROM 25N TO 27N W OF 95W WHERE BUOY 42020 AT 27N96W HAS 3-4 FT SEAS. THE 18 UTC PRELIMINARY SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR NAPLES FLORIDA SW TO NEAR 23N90W. THIS BOUNDARY IS ANALYZED AT 850 MB AS WELL. HIGH PRES BUILDING SE FROM THE SE UNITED STATES IS ANALYZED TO THE N OF THIS BOUNDARY. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A NARROWING UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD SWWD TO CENTRAL AND S CENTRAL GULF. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO THE E OF THE UPPER TROUGH IN COMBINATION WITH THE WEAKENING STATIONARY BOUNDARY IS HELPING TO TRIGGER OFF EXTENSIVE DEEP LEVEL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE OVER THE SE PORTION OF THE GULF...AND SPORADICALLY OVER THE S CENTRAL AND SW PORTIONS. THE UPPER TROUGH AS WELL AS THE 700MB TO 850 MB TROUGH IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SHIFT E OF THE GULF AND INTO THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE ATLANTIC BASIN BY LATE THU NIGHT. THE WEAKENING STATIONARY THEN DISSIPATES THROUGH WED MORNING AS HIGH PRES OVER THE NORTHERN GULF SLIDES EASTWARD AND WEAKENS. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS THEN SHIFTS TO E OF THE AREA BY THU. WINDS CONTINUE AT SIMILAR SPEEDS AND DIRECTION THROUGH WED NIGHT ...THEN DIMINISH TO 5-10 KT OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF THU NIGHT THROUGH SUN...AND BECOME MAINLY VARIABLE IN THE NE PORTION. SEAS LOWER TO 1-2 FT FRI THROUGH SUN. SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... THE PRELIMINARY 18 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR 31N71W SW TO ACROSS SE FLORIDA WHERE IT IS RATHER DIFFUSE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS JUST AHEAD OF THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY. WEAK HIGH PRES IS ANALYZED ELSEWHERE. THE MAIN IMPACTS ON THE BASIN CONTINUE TO BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE NW AND CENTRAL ZONES DUE TO ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY INDUCED BY JET STREAM ENERGY RIDING NEWD AHEAD OF THE GULF OF MEXICO UPPER TROUGH. GUSTY WINDS AND OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY. ASCAT DATA FROM 1424 UTC THIS MORNING ALONG WITH BUOY REPORTS REVEALED AND ARE PRESENTLY REVEALING NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT N OF 29N W OF 72W...AND RELATIVELY LIGHT E-SE WINDS ELSEWHERE EXCEPT LIGHT NE-E WINDS BETWEEN THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY AND 29N. SEAS ARE RUNNING IN THE RANGE OF 3-5 FT BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND 71W...5-6 FT IN A NE SWELL ELSEWHERE EXCEPT UP TO 7 FT WITHIN THE AREA OF NE 15-20 KT WINDS. THE 12 UTC MODEL RUNS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN TO A BROAD TROUGH BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND MOVE SLOWLY W ACROSS THE NW WATERS INTO SAT. A WEAK FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THOSE WATERS SAT AND SUN MERGING WITH THE TROUGH. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE IN ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES. THE 6-7 FT SEAS IN THE NW PORTION SUBSIDE TO 4-5 FT IN A NE SWELL...AND TO 2-4 FT THU THROUGH SUN IN A NE SWELL. ELSEWHERE LITTLE OR NO CHANGES ARE EXPECTED WITH RESPECT TO SEAS. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... A PARTIAL ASCAT PASS FROM NEAR 1430 TC THIS MORNING SHOWED NE-E WINDS OF 20 KT IN THE SW PART OF CENTRAL PORTION. BUOY 42058 AT 15N75W IS CURRENTLY NE-E 20 KT WINDS WITH COMBINED SEAS UP 8-9 FT. ELSEWHERE BUOYS ARE SHOWING LIGHTER NE-E WINDS OF 10-15 KT...AND E-SE 10 KT IN THE FAR WESTERN PORTION. SEAS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 3-5 FT ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT UP TO 9 FT IN THE CENTRAL SECTION OF THE SEA AND 2-3 FT IN THE NW PORTION. SEAS ARE 5-6 FT IN A NE SWELL OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONES. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 68W S OF 17N MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE COMBINATION OF THE WAVE AND A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO ITS W IS RESULTING IN ENHANCED TSTM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE CARIBBEAN...AND OVER MUCH OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONES. THE WAVE IS FORECAST TO REACH NEAR 70W BY WED MORNING...NEAR 75W THU MORNING...JUST S OF JAMAICA BY FRI MORNING...THEN MOVE ACROSS THE REST OF THE SEA FRI THROUGH SAT. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE FORECAST THE 8-9 FT SEAS IN THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO LOWER TO 6 FT BY THU...AND TO 2-3 FT FRI THROUGH SUN. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECAST IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. SW N ATLANTIC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE