000 AGXX40 KNHC 171818 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 245 PM EDT MON SEP 17 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1006 MB LOW PRES IS NEAR 28.5N 93.5W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 22N97W. THE LOW PRES IS FORECAST TO MOVED INLAND OVER SE LOUISIANA IN ABOUT 12 HOURS. IN THE MEANTIME... THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE NW GULF WATERS BY EARLY TUE. THE FRONT WILL MERGE WITH THE TROUGH AND STALL OVER THE SE PART OF THE GULF WED AND THU THEN BECOME DIFFUSE BY FRI. SLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT/TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT IN THE NE GULF WATERS TUE BUILDING SEAS TO 7-8 FT. NLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT ARE EXPECTED BRIEFLY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT N OF 28N THROUGH WED. OTHERWISE MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED INTO THE SW N ATLC WATERS AND HELPED PUSH THE SURFACE TROUGH E OF THE FORECAST AREA. SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM NADINE HAVE SUBSIDED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LATEST SCATTEROMETER...SHIP...AND BUOY DATA DEPICT LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZE WITH SEAS 4 TO 5 FT E OF THE BAHAMAS AND SEAS 1 TO 3 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS. EXPECT INCREASING WINDS TO 20 KT ACROSS THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA BY TUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE FAR NW PART OF THE AREA WED WHERE IT IS FORECAST TO STALL. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL THEN LIFT N OF THE AREA FRI. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS AND THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS...EXCEPT FOR MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS. A WEAK 1011 MB LOW PRES AREA REMAINS ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. THE LOW PRES IS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N59W. SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAINS MINIMAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MOST OF THE SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY IS AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS COVERING A LARGE AREA FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 58W AND 68W. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER NEAR THE TSTMS. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK LOW PRES WILL BE SLOWING DOWN. BASED ON THE COMPUTER FORECAST... THE WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATER TODAY THROUGH WED MORNING...ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WED THROUGH FRI REACHING THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN BY SAT. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE WILL REACH THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS THU...AND MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN WATERS FRI. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECAST IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. SW N ATLANTIC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER GR