000 AGXX40 KNHC 161837 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 245 PM EDT SUN SEP 16 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED IN THE WESTERN GULF WATERS ALONG 95W. LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICT NLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT W OF THE TROUGH AXIS PARTICULARLY OVER THE SW PART OF THE GULF. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WITH SEAS GENERALLY 3 FT OR LESS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WATERS. A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS AND NOW IS LOCATED ABOUT 80 NM EAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES BY LATE MONDAY WHILE A TROUGH WILL PERSIST EXTENDING FROM SE LOUISIANA TO NEAR 23N93W. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW GULF WATERS BY EARLY TUE...THEN WILL MERGE WITH THE TROUGH AND STALL OVER THE SE PART OF THE GULF AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WED AND THU. NLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH SEAS OF 4-5 FT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE E OF THE FRONT. SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N60W TO THE SE BAHAMAS NEAR 21.5N73W. LATEST SCATTEROMETER...SHIP AND BUOY DATA INDICATE GENTLE TO MODERATE NE TO E WINDS BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS AND MAINLY LIGHT WINDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE SE WATERS. SEAS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA ARE GENERALLY 4 TO 6 FT...WITH SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS. SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE NADINE ARE MOVING THROUGH NE PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH SEAS TO 6-8 FT. SEAS WILL START TO SUBSIDE TODAY AS NADINE CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. THE SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO TRACK EAST OF THE AREA BY TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE S AND SW OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE REGION MON THROUGH WED AS HIGH PRES MOVES EWD ACROSS THE W ATLC. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW PART OF THE AREA WED WHERE IT IS FORECAST TO STALL. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... BASED ON THE LATEST SCATTEROMETER...SHIP AND BUOY DATA...LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS AND THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS...EXCEPT FOR MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS. A 1011 MB LOW PRES HAS DEVELOPED ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ENTERING THE TROPICAL N ATLC. AT THIS TIME...CONVECTION IS LIMITED NEAR THE LOW PRES CENTER. BOTH...THE WAVE AND LOW PRES ARE PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY WELL AHEAD OF THE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE AXIS ALREADY AFFECTING THE LESSER ANTILLES. BASED ON THE COMPUTER MODELS...THE LOW PRES IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR 14N60W MON MORNING...NEAR 15N65W TUE MORNING AND NEAR 16N70W WED MORNING. WHILE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY MARGINAL FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT...THEY COULD BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. PRESENTLY...THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10-15 KT. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE WILL REACH THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS THU. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECAST IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. SW N ATLANTIC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER GR