000 AGXX40 KNHC 151832 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 245 PM EDT SAT SEP 15 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A SURFACE TROUGH...REFLECTION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW...IS NOTED ALONG 92W S OF 26N. SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE SOME WIND SHIFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS TROUGH. PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND A RIDGE ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST COULD BRING A BRIEFLY INCREASE IN WINDS TO 20 KT ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF THROUGH THIS EVENING. LATEST SCATTEROMETER...SHIP...AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS DEPICT MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS WITH SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT N OF 26N AND S OF 26N W OF OF 94W WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS 2 TO 4 FT ELSEWHERE. A WEAK SURFACE LOW MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GULF WATERS BY LATE SUN. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES ON MONDAY. A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT HAS ENTERED THE FAR NW PART OF THE GULF. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO A POSITION FROM SE LOUISIANA TO 25N97W MON MORNING AND FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO 24N94W TUE MORNING. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF MON AND TUE...MERGING WITH THE FIRST FRONT AND STALLING OVER THE E GULF WED. SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N66W TO 25N70W. A 1013 MB LOW PRES HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS NEAR 27N67.5W. A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW. RECENT SCATTEROMETER AND SURFACE DATA INDICATE THAT LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. SEAS ARE GENERALLY 4 TO 6 FT W OF 70W TO THE BAHAMAS CHAIN WITH SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS. SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE NADINE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NE PART OF THE FORECAST AREA RAISING SEAS TO 6-9 FT TODAY BEFORE SUBSIDING AS NADINE CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION. BUOY 41049 LOCATED NEAR 27N63W HAS REPORTED SEAS TO 8 FT. BOTH...THE SURFACE TROUGH AND THE LOW PRES ARE FORECAST TO TRACK EAST OF THE AREA BY SUN NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE S AND SW OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA MON THROUGH WED AS HIGH PRES MOVES EWD ACROSS THE W ATLC. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS AND THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS...EXCEPT FOR MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS. THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF THESE WIND SPEEDS. AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE IS CURRENTLY ALONG 53W FROM 11N TO 17N. AN AREA OF FRESH WINDS WITH SEAS TO 8 FT IN NOTED E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 12N TO 15N TO 49W. WINDS ARE FORECAST BY THE COMPUTER MODELS TO DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT IN ABOUT 6-12 HOURS. HOWEVER...EXPECT HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS NEAR THE TSTMS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS WAVE WHICH IS PRODUCING A DISORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM THAT COVERS FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 50W AND 56W. UPPER LEVEL WINDS REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO INHIBIT ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS SUN...THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN MON...AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TUE AND WED. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECAST IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. SW N ATLANTIC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER GR