000 AGXX40 KNHC 130803 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 403 AM EDT THU SEP 13 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... FRONTAL ZONE HAS WASHED OUT ACROSS THE SE GULF PAST 12 HOURS AS IT HAS MOVED WSW INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. LLVL TROUGH/WAVE ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS LAST NIGHT HAS HELD TOGETHER AND MOVING WSW ACROSS THE STRAITS ATTM...ALONG ABOUT 82W...AND STILL PRODUCING ACTIVE CNVTN. UPPER CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME LESS FAVORABLE WITHIN 24 HRS AS THIS PERTURBATION MOVES WNW ACROSS N YUCATAN. LOW-MID LVL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE W GULF ALONG THE UPPER MEXICAN COAST REMAINS ACTIVE...AND MODELS...AND MY FORECASTS...HAVE PRONOUNCED THAT THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE INLAND. HOWEVER...THAT HAS YET TO OCCUR...AND WITH WLY MOMENTUM FROM UPPER FLOW...IT IS LIKELY TO REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA WATERS TODAY TO PRODUCE SCT TSTMS. OTHERWISE...FRESH NELY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE NE GULF AND HAS GRADUALLY SPREAD W INTO N CENTRAL PORTIONS. SEAS UP TO 7 FT ACROSS ERN GULF PER BUOYS...AND WWII CONTINUES UNDERDONE. WILL AGAIN TRY TO FORECAST 1-2 FT IN EXCESS OF WWIII FOR THIS REGION FOR TODAY...THIS EASE WIND AND SEAS DOWN THIS EVENING...BEFORE ANOTHER SURGE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE E GULF BEHIND THE EXITING WAVE MENTIONED ABOVE. PRES GRADIENT BASIN WIDE TO RELAX FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR AN IMPROVING TREND. MODELS INDICATING WEAK TROUGHING ACROSS W GULF FROM NRN BAY OF CAMPECHE INTO NW PORTIONS. SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS LOST UPPER SUPPORT AND IS WEAKENING ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...WHILE NE PORTION HAS BEGUN TO MOVE BACK TOWARDS THE WNW AS A WARM FRONT. TWO WAVES ALONG THIS FRONTAL ZONE LAST NIGHT CONTINUE...ONE MENTIONED ABOVE MOVING THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AND A SECOND NEAR 28N66W. FRONTAL ZONE TO GRADUALLY WASH OUT NEXT 48 HOURS...WHILE LOW BECOMES ELONGATED...AND WITH SOME GLOBAL SOLUTIONS SHOWING A SURFACE LOW LIFTING NE ACROSS BERMUDA OVER THE WEEKEND. FRESH NE TO E FLOW NW OF DYING BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS HIGH PRES RIDGE WEAKENS ACROSS SE U.S. AND NADINE BEGINS TO MOVE CLOSER TO THE REGION. SWELL FROM NADINE WILL BEGIN TO REACH E AND SE PORTIONS EARLY FRI...REMAINING WATERS SAT...AND E COAST OF FLORIDA BY SAT EVENING. THESE SWELL TO RAISE SEAS TO 6-8 FT SE PORTIONS AND 6-9 FT NE PORTIONS FRI AND FRI NIGHT...BUT WILL OTHERWISE PRODUCE ONLY MODEST RISE IN SEA HEIGHTS W OF 72W ACROSS THE OPEN OFFSHORE WATERS. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS CARIBBEAN EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS NADINE FORCES RIDGE ACROSS SE U.S. AND NW ATLC TO LIFT AND EASES PRESSURE GRADIENT TONIGHT THROUGH TUE. NADINE EXPECTED TO REMAIN E OF 55W BUT ASSOCIATED SWELL WILL IMPACT N PORTIONS TROPICAL ATLC WATERS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRI. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECAST IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. SW N ATLANTIC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING