000 AGXX40 KNHC 100800 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 400 AM EDT MON SEP 10 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... COLD FRONT ACROSS NRN GULF HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO WEAKEN AS UPPER FLOW HAS GONE ZONAL ALONG THE N GULF COASTS AND CAA NO LONGER OCCURRING. ISOLATED CLUSTERS OF DEEP CNVTN CONTINUE TO FIRE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM NRN FLORIDA ALONG ABOUT 29N TO 27N91.5W TO MEXICAN COASTS JUST N OF TAMPICO. LATEST OBS DEPICT MODERATE ENE WINDS N OF THE FRONT W OF 87W WITH SEAS DOWN TO 3-4 FT...AND SEAS 3 FT OR LESS ELSEWHERE. FRONT TO SHIFT SLOWLY S AND E AND REACH FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR TAMPA BAY TO 26.5N94W TO 21N97W THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE W PORTIONS THEN BECOMING STATIONARY INTO THE EVENING THEN DRIFTING N THROUGH TUE NIGHT...WHILE THE E PORTION SINKS FARTHER S ACROSS S FLORIDA BY TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING TO A SHEARLINE E-W ACROSS EXTREME S FLORIDA WED. HIGH PRES ACROSS THE SE U.S. BEHIND THE FRONT TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH WED WILL INDUCE FRESHENING ELY FLOW ACROSS THE NE GULF WITH SEAS BUILDING 4-6 FT. SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... TROPICAL STORM LESLIE IS NOW NE OF BERMUDA AND OUT OF THE REGION...WITH THE FIRST COLD FRONT OF THE SEASON ACROSS THE NW WATERS FROM NEAR 31N75W TO NE FLORIDA. PRE FRONTAL TROUGH HAS BEEN LOST ON SURFACE MAPS BUT STILL PRESENT AS DEPICTED IN RECENT GFS FORECASTS. AM FOLLOWING THE GFS FAIRLY CLOSELY WITH THIS PACKAGE AND HAVE THE FRONT REACHING 31N71W TO JUST N OF CAPE CANAVERAL BY 18Z THEN FROM 27.5N70W LAKE OKEECHOBEE BY 18Z TUE. SW WINDS 20-25 KT N OF 28N AHEAD OF FRONT WILL SHIFT E WITH FRONT THROUGH EARLY TUE WITH HIGH PRES BEHIND FRONT BUILDING INTO NW PORTIONS TONIGHT TO PRODUCE 15-20 KT NE WINDS...WITH GRADIENT BECOMING ENHANCED TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED TO YIELD ENE FLOW NEAR 20 KT...AND SEAS BUILDING 6-7 FT W OF 75W. OTHERWISE...SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH LESLIE HAS BEGUN TO GRADUALLY FADE...AND THE ACCELERATING MOTION WILL HASTEN THIS PROCESS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS E ATLC THIS MORNING SHOWING SIGNS OF IMPROVED ORGANIZATION...AND NHC RUNNING GUIDANCE ATTM. A MORE WWD SOLUTION IS PREFERRED WITH THIS SYSTEM...CLOSER TO THE RECENT GFS RUNS...AND CLIPPER. HAVE THUS FOLLOWED THE GFS WITH THIS SYSTEM...BRINGING NELY SWELL INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS WED NIGHT AND THU. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... NLY SWELL FROM TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WILL CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE ATLC PASSAGES OF THE NE CARIBBEAN...AS IS FADES NEXT 36 HRS. FRESH TRADES ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE S CENTRAL PORTION OF THE BASIN WITH SEAS 6-9 FT NEXT FEW DAYS... MODERATE TRADES AND SEAS 3-5 ELSEWHERE. TROPICAL WAVE AND LOW MENTIONED ABOVE IS EXPECTED TO TURN NW BEFORE REACHING 55W AND NOT EXPECTED TO DIRECTLY IMPACT THE CARIB. HOWEVER...AS IT TURNS NW WED AND THU...A WEAKENING GRADIENT TO THE W AND ACROSS THE BASIN WILL WEAKEN WINDS BY THU...WITH MAX OF AROUND 20 KT ACROSS COLOMBIA COASTAL WATERS AND 10-15 KT ELSEWHERE. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECAST IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. SW N ATLANTIC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING