000 AGXX40 KNHC 090800 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 400 AM EDT SUN SEP 09 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... FIRST COLD FRONT OF THE SEASON HAS DROPPED SSE INTO THE NRN GULF OVERNIGHT AND EXTENDED FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA TO JUST N OF BROWNSVILLE...WITH LINGERING WEAK TROUGH JUST TO THE SE OF FRONT AND EXTENDING ACROSS N FLORIDA. OIL PLATFORMS OFFSHORE OF UPPER TEXAS AND SW LOUISIANA COASTS REPORTING 20-25 KT NE WINDS...BUT SURFACE WINDS LIKELY STILL ONLY 15-20 KT ATTM...AND GLOBAL MODEL WINDS NOT SUGGESTING WINDS TO INCREASE TO BEYOND 20 KT...AND ONLY BRIEFLY...THROUGH AROUND 12Z AND THEN JUST BEHIND FRONT OFF SE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. REMNANTS OF SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE NE GULF HAS SHIFTED INLAND AND WEAKENED ACROSS N FLORIDA...AND AIDING ON CONVERGENCE AND CNVTN THERE. SW WINDS OF 20-25 KT TO THE SE OF THAT LOW RAISED SEAS TO 8 FT AT BUOY 42036 EARLIER THIS EVENING...BUT BUOY HAS SINCE SUBSIDED TO 6 FT AND THAT PULSE OF WINDSEA HAS MOVED ONSHORE DURING PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THE FRONT WILL SINK S FROM 29N83W ALONG THE W COAST OF FLORIDA TO JUST S OF BROWNSVILLE BY 18Z TODAY THEN BEGIN TO WASH OUT FROM TAMPA BAY AREA TO CENTRAL MEXICAN COAST BY 18Z MON AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR N TO NE WINDS 15-20 KT BEHIND FRONT THIS AFTERNOON DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT BY MON. MODELS INDICATING TYPICAL WAVE ALONG FRONT OFFSHORE OF MEXICO WHICH WILL ALLOW NLY WINDS TO FUNNEL ALONG THE MEXICAN COASTAL WATERS W OF THE FRONT. FRONT TO MEANER THROUGH TUE ...SHIFTING S ACROSS SE PORTIONS AND INTO S FLORIDA TUE...WHILE BEGINNING TO LIFT N TUE-WED ACROSS W PORTIONS AS SE RETURN FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED. SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... TROPICAL STORM LESLIE HAS NOT INTENSIFIED AS FORECAST...AND LOOKS TO BE SUFFERING FROM SELF INFLICTED UPWELLING. HOWEVER THE STORM HAS BEGUN TO MORE A LITTLE FASTER N EARLY THIS MORNING AS WILL ENTER WARMER WATERS NEXT 24 HOURS...ALLOWING FOR THE EXPECTED STRENGTHENING. ONE LAST STRONG N TO NE PULSE OF SWELL FROM THE NW AND W QUAD OF LESLIE WAS GENERATED YESTERDAY AND MOVED INTO SW ATLC WATERS...AND IS HITTING COASTS OF GREATER ANTILLES AND BAHAMAS ATTM. TOO...WRN SEMICIRCLE OF STORM FORCE WINDS ARE JUST INSIDE THE NE PORTIONS OF AMZ115...THE FAR NE OFFSHORE ZONE...AND T.S. WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT THERE THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING. LESLIE WILL SHIFT N OF 31N TODAY AND THEN ACCELERATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AND FINALLY EXIT THE LOCAL REGION. SWELL WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE RATHER QUICKLY FOR AREAS S OF 25N THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN N OF 25N TONIGHT. LONG PERIOD SWELL GENERATED FROM LESLIE WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE AWAY FROM THE SYSTEM AND THROUGH ALL LOCAL WATERS...AND HIT COASTS... REEFS...AND SHOALS OF LOCAL SHORELINES WITH STRONG AND PERSISTENT SURF. MODERATE SURF AND VERY STRONG RIP CURRENTS WILL PERSIST IN THESE SURF ZONES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE ABATING MONDAY. THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH TUE...REACHING FROM 26N65W TO SOUTH FLORIDA BY TUE NIGHT WHERE IT WILL STALL. SW WINDS 20-25 KT WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ACROSS NW PORTIONS...SHIFTING E THROUGH TONIGHT AS FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA...WITH N TO NE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT BEHIND FRONT MON BECOMING NE TO E TUE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... LONG PERIOD NLY SWELL FROM TROPICAL STORM LESLIE CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE ATLC PASSAGES OF THE NE CARIBBEAN AND WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT TO MODERATE E WINDS WILL PERSIST ELSEWHERE OVER MOST OF THE REGION...EXCEPT UP TO 20 KT IN THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...INCREASING TO 20-25 KT OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA TONIGHT THROUGH TUE...AND OCCASIONALLY 15-20 KT IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS MAINLY AT NIGHT. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN 6 FT OR LESS... BUILDING TO 7-8 FT ALONG AND OFFSHORE OF COLOMBIA THIS EVENING THROUGH SUN...WHERE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE 6-8 FT THROUGH TUE NIGHT. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECAST IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. SW N ATLANTIC... .AMZ115...TROPICAL STORM WARNING. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING