000 AGXX40 KNHC 070801 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 400 AM EDT FRI SEP 07 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... THE MAIN FEATURE OVER THE AREA IS A WEAK LOW PRES SYSTEM THAT DROPPED S FROM THE SE U.S. INTO THE NORTHERN GULF ON WED...AND IS NOW ANALYZED AS A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 28N89W. NLY SHEAR OF 10-20 KT HAS DISPLACED ASSOCIATED CNVTN TO THE SW OF THE SOMEWHAT ELONGATED LOW...WITH LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVING DECREASED IN PAST HOURS. AREA BUOYS SHOWING ONLY AROUND 15 KT OF WIND WITH THIS CIRCULATION ATTM...AND 3-4 FT SEAS. A 0345Z ALTIMETER PASS FROM W CUBA TO FL PANHANDLE SHOWED 3.5-4.5 FT SEAS N OF 26N THERE...AND WOULD ESTIMATE THAT MAX SEAS STILL ONLY AROUND 5 FT...BUT MAY BE BRIEFLY HIGHER IN THE CONVECTION. THE LOW IS NOT PRESENTLY SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AS ITS CLOUD PATTERN STRUCTURE REMAINS SHEARED AND DISORGANIZED. HOWEVER IT STILL HAS A BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH SAT BEFORE AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GULF COAST STATES AND THE LOW LIFTS NE OUT AHEAD OF IT SAT EVENING THROUGH SUN MORNING. MODELS SUGGEST REASONABLE POTENTIAL FOR 20 KT SW ACROSS THE SE QUAD OF LOW AS IT SHIFT NE LATE SUN WITH SEAS LIKELY MAXED AT 6 FT THERE. WEAK FRONT WILL SINK INTO N HALF OF GULF AND WASH OUT BY MON NIGHT-TUE MORNING. NE WINDS TO 20 KT AREA EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT LATE SAT NIGHT-SUN MORNING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS E OF 90W...AND POSSIBLY ALSO FROM MOUTH OF MS TO MOBILE BAY. SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... HURRICANE LESLIE REMAINS E OF ATLC OFFSHORE ZONES NEAR 26.6N 62.2W AT 0600 UTC DRIFTING NORTHWARD IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. LITTLE CHANGE TO RECENT FORECAST FOR LESLIE...AND MAIN THREAT FOR REGION IS THE SWELL BEING GENERATED IN ALL DIRECTIONS. PEAK ENERGY IN RECENT DAYS HAS BEEN DIRECTED TOWARD THE MID ATLC COAST OF THE U.S. HOWEVER THE WIND FIELD HAS IMPROVED AND BECOME MORE CIRCULAR...AND SWELL GENERATION TOWARD THE SW HAS IMPROVED. THUS NE SWELL HAS BEGUN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AS WELL AS ALONG THE N COASTS OF HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. GLOBAL MODELS SHOWING WAVE HEIGHTS MAXING IN THIS SW QUAD NEXT 24-48 HOURS. AN INTERESTING 0145 ALTIMETER PASS TO THE E OF LESLIE SHOWED AN ISOLATED AREA OF 12 FT SEAS SOME 450 NM TO THE NNE OF LESLIE...AND I SUSPECT THAT THIS MAY BE E SWELL FROM MICHAEL MIXING WITH THE BACKGROUND 8-9 FT SEAS FROM LESLIE. GCP OF THIS ENERGY WOULD APPEAR AIMED AT THE CAPE HATTERAS TO DELMARVA AREAS. AS LESLIE LIFTS SLOWLY NWD NEXT FEW DAYS...THE RADIUS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BARELY TOUCH THE E BORDERS OF AMZ121 THROUGH FRI NIGHT AND AMZ115 THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON...AND AM LEAVING THE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR THESE ZONES WITHOUT A WARNING. LARGE AND VERY POWERFUL LONG PERIOD SWELLS GENERATED BY LESLIE WILL AFFECT THE ENTIRE E COAST OF NORTH AMERICA EXPOSED TO E AND SE SWELL ENERGY CREATING PERIODS OF HIGH SURF AND WIDESPREAD AND PERSISTENT RIP CURRENTS. THIS IS A SITUATION WHERE RIP CURRENT "RISK" IS NOT HIGH...IT IS GUARANTEED. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... LONG PERIOD NLY SWELLS FROM LESLIE AFFECTING THE ATLC EXPOSURES OF THE NE CARIBBEAN AND WATERS NEAR HISPANIOLA ARE FORECAST TO LAST INTO SUN BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING. THESE SWELLS WILL RESULT IN SEAS OF AROUND 6-8 FT IN THE PASSAGES SAT...THEN SUBSIDING TO 5-7 FT SUN AND 3-5 FT MON AND TUE. LIGHT TO MODERATE E WINDS WILL PERSIST ELSEWHERE OVER MOST OF THE REGION...EXCEPT UP TO 20 KT IN THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...AND OCCASIONALLY 15-20 KT IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS MAINLY AT NIGHT. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN 6 FT OR LESS. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECAST IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. SW N ATLANTIC... .TROPICAL STORM WARNING N OF 25N E OF 65W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING