000 AGXX40 KNHC 060759 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 400 AM EDT THU SEP 6 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... SCATTEROMETER AND SURFACE REPORTS INDICATE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRES JUST S OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA NEAR 29.5N 88W ARE AROUND 20 KT...WITH A MINIMUM PRES OF 1010 MB. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND THERE IS A MEDIUM...50 PERCENT...CHANCE THIS LOW WILL INTENSIFY INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS TO BE 20 TO 25 KT WITH THIS LOW...MAINLY TO THE E SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 7-8 FT. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO BE ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE N GULF WATERS LATE SAT. 15-20 KT NLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT SUN. LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS 2 FT OR LESS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION THROUGH SAT AS A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO. SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... MINIMAL HURRICANE LESLIE IS DRIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND SLOWLY INTENSIFYING. IT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD ROUGHLY ALONG 62-63W THROUGH FRI. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC. THE RADIUS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL EXTEND INTO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AMZ121 OFFSHORE ZONE THROUGH EARLY SAT...AND THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AMZ115 OFFSHORE ZONE THROUGH SUN MORNING. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THESE ZONES. LARGE LONG PERIOD SWELLS GENERATED BY THE SLOW-MOVING SYSTEM WILL AFFECT A LARGE SWATH OF THE FORECAST AREA INCLUDING BERMUDA AND THE U.S. EAST COAST FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA NORTHWARD FOR SEVERAL DAYS... WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. ELSEWHERE W OF 70W...LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS 3 FT OR LESS WILL PERSIST. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE NW BAHAMAS PRODUCING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE NW BAHAMAS AND SE FLORIDA WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE U.S. SUN WILL ALLOW LESLIE TO LIFT N AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA SUN AND MON. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... RESIDUAL SWELL FROM LESLIE AFFECTING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND HISPANIOLA WILL CONTINUE TODAY. LARGE LONG PERIOD N SWELL TO 8 FT GENERATED BY HURRICANE LESLIE WILL AFFECT ATLC EXPOSURES FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THROUGH SUN. LIGHT TO MODERATE E WINDS WILL PERSIST ELSEWHERE OVER MOST OF THE REGION...EXCEPT UP TO 20 KT IN THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...AND OCCASIONALLY 15-20 KT IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS MAINLY AT NIGHT. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN 6 FT OR LESS. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECAST IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 19N... .TROPICAL STORM WARNING...AMZ115/AMZ121. SW N ATLANTIC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER MUNDELL