000 AGXX40 KNHC 041826 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 245 PM EDT TUE SEP 04 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK 1017 MB HIGH PRES CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR 27N86W. THIS SYSTEM EXTENDS A RIDGE SW ACROSS THE GULF WATERS TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO. LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZE COVERS THE REGION. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE SW AT 15 KT OFF THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE SOUTH TO 25N THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AHEAD OF A WEAK LOW PRES...IN PART ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ISAAC MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. THIS WEAK LOW PRES WILL REACH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE WED AND MOVE INTO THE NE GULF WATERS BY THU...THEN WILL MEANDER OVER THE NE GULF THROUGH SAT. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO BE ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT MOVING IN TO THE FAR N GULF WATERS BY LATE SAT. NLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15-20 KT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT BY SUN. SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... TROPICAL STORM LESLIE IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH. AT 1500 UTC...IT IS CENTERED NEAR 25.0N 62.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT MOVING N AT 3 KT WITH MINIMUM PRESSURE 994 MB. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. BEYOND THIS PERIOD...THE SHEAR...THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING LESLIE...IS EXPECTED TO RELAX. THIS WILL GIVE LESLIE THE OPPORTUNITY TO GAIN STRENGTH. BASED ON THE NHC OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST...LESLIE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MINIMAL HURRICANE BY FRI MORNING. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON LESLIE... PLEASE REFER TO NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC. THE RADIUS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE NOW EXPECTED TO BARELY PUSH INTO THE OFFSHORE ZONES. MEANWHILE EASTERLY SWELL TO 8 FT HAS FINALLY REACHED BUOY 41047 NEAR 27.5N 71.5W. SEAS ARE CONTINUING TO SUBSIDE AT BUOY 41046 NEAR 24N68W...AND ARE LIKELY NO MORE THAN 6 FT ALONG THE NORTHERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO AND DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. ANOTHER ROUND OF NORTHERLY SWELL TO 8 FT WILL REACH THE ISLANDS BY LATE FRI INTO SAT. SWELLS GENERATED BY LESLIE WILL ALSO AFFECT BERMUDA AND THE U.S. EAST COAST FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA NORTHWARD FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. ELSEWHERE WEAK HIGH PRES ACROSS THE SW N ATLC WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS. ELSEWHERE W OF 70W...HIGH PRES...LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS 3 FT OR LESS WILL PERSIST. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE NW BAHAMAS IS PRODUCING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE NW BAHAMAS AND SE FLORIDA. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... TROPICAL STORM LESLIE CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA. RESIDUAL SWELL FROM LESLIE UP TO 6 FT IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...BUT THIS WILL SUBSIDE FURTHER LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF UP TO 20 KT OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...AND OCCASIONALLY 20 KT IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS MAINLY AT NIGHT. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY LESS THAN 8 FT. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECAST IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 19N... .NONE. SW N ATLANTIC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER GR/EC