000 AGXX40 KNHC 031842 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 250 PM EDT MON SEP 03 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... 1019 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 28N87W EXTENDS A RIDGE FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA TO THE TEXAS COAST. SCATTEROMETER DATA PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS MAINLY N OF 22N W OF 94W WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND NEAR THE YUCATAN COAST DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE SOUTH TO 25N THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. EXPECT LIGHT SW FLOW N OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE E TO SE FLOW S OF THE AXIS THROUGH THU. SEAS WILL REMAIN 3 FT OR LESS OVERALL. LOOKING AHEAD...A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL BRING A WEAK LOW PRES SYSTEM...IN PART ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANT OF ISAAC...TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. THE LOW PRES WILL MOVE TO A POSITION NEAR 29N87W BY THU. SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... TROPICAL STORM LESLIE IS CENTERED NEAR 24.4N 63.1W AT 03/1500 UTC...MOVING NNW AT 7 KT. MAX SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT AND AN ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 998 MB. THE SHEAR...THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING LESLIE...IS EXPECTED TO RELAX. THIS WILL GIVE LESLIE THE OPPORTUNITY TO GAIN STRENGTH. BASED ON THE NHC OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST...LESLIE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MINIMAL HURRICANE IN ABOUT 72 HOURS OR BY THU MORNING. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON LESLIE...PLEASE REFER TO NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC. THE 1340 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED VERY WELL THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION RELATED TO LESLIE WITH THE CENTER LOCATED NEAR THE EDGE AND TO THE N OF THE STRONGEST CONVECTION. THE RADIUS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IS EXPECTED TO REACH AS FAR W AS 65W...BUT NOT ANY FURTHER. HOWEVER...ANY WOBBLE TO THE WEST WILL BRING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS TO THE EASTERNMOST ZONES. IN FACT...THE CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN ZONES AMZ115 AND AMZ121 DURING THE MOST PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS LESLIE MOVES TOWARD THE NORTH AND A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SWATH OF EASTERLY SWELL FROM LESLIE WITH HEIGHTS 8 FT OR GREATER REACHING AS FAR W AS 72W...SUBSIDING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH IN TANDEM WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE STORM. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY LESLIE COULD AFFECT BERMUDA AND THE U.S. EAST COAST FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA NORTHWARD FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. ELSEWHERE E OF 70W...HIGH PRES...LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS 3 FT OR LESS WILL PERSIST. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRES CENTERED OVER ANDROS ISLAND IS CONTRIBUTING A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE BAHAMAS THAT WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT W OF THE AREA THROUGH TUE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... TROPICAL STORM LESLIE CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA. RESIDUAL SWELL FROM LESLIE UP TO 7 FT IS POSSIBLE EARLY TODAY NEAR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...BUT THIS WILL SUBSIDE FURTHER THIS AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF UP TO 20 KT OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...AND OCCASIONALLY 20 KT IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS MAINLY AT NIGHT. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY LESS THAN 8 FT. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECAST IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 19N... .NONE. SW N ATLANTIC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER GR