000 AGXX40 KNHC 030751 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 350 AM EDT MON SEP 03 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... 1018 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 27N90W EMBEDDED IN A RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA TO THE TEXAS COAST. BUOY AND SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE AXIS. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE SOUTH TO 25N THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. EXPECT LIGHT SW FLOW N OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE E TO SE FLOW S OF THE AXIS THROUGH THU. SEAS WILL REMAIN 3 FT OR LESS OVERALL. SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... TROPICAL STORM LESLIE IS CENTERED NEAR 23.5N 62.0W AT 03/0600 UTC...MOVING WNW AT 9 KT. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON LESLIE... PLEASE REFER TO NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC. THE RADIUS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IS EXPECTED TO REACH AS FAR W AS 65W...BUT NOT ANY FURTHER. THEREFORE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE NOT IN EFFECT FOR ANY OFFSHORE ZONES AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...ANY WOBBLE TO THE WEST OR ANY INCREASE IN THE RADIUS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL REQUIRE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS BE POSTED IN ONE OR BOTH OF THE OFFSHORE ZONES...AMZ115 AND AMZ121...E OF 70W. AT ANY RATE THE STRONGEST WINDS 25 KT OR GREATER WILL LIKELY BE CONTAINED TO THE AREAS E OF 67W NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE ZONES. SIMILARLY...THE STRONGEST CONVECTION SEEMS TO BE CONTAINED TO ROUGHLY THE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...WILL LIKELY STAY E OF 65W FOR THE MOST PART. SEAS IN THE FORM OF SWELL GENERATED FROM LESLIE WILL HAVE A WIDER REACHING IMPACT. BUOY 41049 LOCATED ABOUT 240 NM WNW OF THE CENTER OF LESLIE IS ALREADY REPORTING SEAS TO 15 FT. MOST OF THE WAVE ENERGY AT THIS BUOY IS IN THE FORM OF 13 SECOND SE SWELL. A SHARP GRADIENT IS PRESENT IN THE WAVE HEIGHTS...WITH BUOY 41047 LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 71.5W APPROXIMATELY 450 NM DUE W OF 41049 REPORTING ONLY 2 FT CURRENTLY. BUOY 41046 NEAR 24N68W REPORTED SEAS JUMPING FROM 4 FT TO 11 FT IN THE PAST 8 HOURS. HOWEVER BUOY 41043 SW OF LESLIE NEAR 21N65W REPORTED SEAS TO 10 FT AT 0215 UTC...BUT IS NOW SHOW SEAS DIMINISHING. THIS IS IN LINE WITH WAVE MODEL CONSENSUS FROM THE MWW3...ECWAVE...AND UKWAVE SHOWING A SWATH OF EASTERLY SWELL FROM LESLIE WITH HEIGHTS 8 FT OR GREATER REACHING AS FAR W AS 72W...SUBSIDING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH IN TANDEM WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE STORM. ELSEWHERE E OF 70W...HIGH PRES...LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS 3 FT OR LESS WILL PERSIST. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRES CENTERED OVER ANDROS ISLAND IS CONTRIBUTING A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE BAHAMAS THAT WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT W OF THE AREA THROUGH TUE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... TROPICAL STORM LESLIE CONTINUES TO MOVE N OF THE AREA. RESIDUAL SWELL FROM LESLIE UP TO 7 FT IS POSSIBLE EARLY TODAY NEAR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...BUT THIS WILL SUBSIDE FURTHER THIS AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF UP TO 20 KT OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...AND OCCASIONALLY SPIKES TO 20 KT IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS MAINLY AT NIGHT. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY LESS THAN 8 FT. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECAST IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 19N... .NONE. SW N ATLANTIC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN