000 AGXX40 KNHC 300801 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 400 AM EDT THU AUG 30 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC REMAINS INLAND NEAR BATON ROUGE. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0238 UTC SHOWED TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH WINDS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE COASTS OF LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI...JUST WITHIN THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS HAVE BEEN STEADILY DROPPING OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AS ISAAC CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER LAND. BUOY 42012 OFF ORANGE BEACH ALABAMA INDICATED SEAS HAVE DROPPED BELOW 12 FT...DOWN FROM A PEAK OF 19 FT 36 HOURS AGO. WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF THROUGH TODAY AS ISAAC MOVES NORTHWARD AND WEAKENS FURTHER. AS ISAAC MOVES NNW TOWARD THE ARKLATEX AREA THROUGH LATE TODAY...HIGH PRES WILL PIVOT SOUTHWARD FROM THE CAROLINA COAST...EVENTUALLY BUILDING FROM GEORGIA COAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF TO THE TEXAS COAST THROUGH SAT. THE RIDGE WILL SETTLE ALONG ROUGHLY 27N WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS WILL COVER THE GULF SAT THROUGH MON. 8 TO 12 FT SEAS WILL LINGER OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF WATERS THROUGH TODAY IN SOUTHERLY SWELL EVEN AS WINDS DIMINISH. CONSENSUS OF MWW3...ECWAVE...AND UKWAVE GUIDANCE INDICATES SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT EVERYWHERE IN THE GULF BY TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... WEAK HIGH PRES ALONG 27N WILL GIVE WAY TO A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY/TROUGH THAT WILL PUSH SOUTH TODAY...MAINLY E OF 70W...THEN SHIFT E OUT OF THE AREA. REINFORCING HIGH PRES WILL FOLLOW AND SETTLE OFF THE GEORGIA COAST BY LATE FRI...ALLOWING LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE WHOLE AREA THROUGH MON. MEANWHILE A BROAD LOW OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 13N44W IS GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE ECMWF...UKMET AND NOGAPS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSISTENTLY BULLISH GFS SHOWING THE LOW DEEPENING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND IT MAY BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING THE TRACK OF THE LOW MOVING WNW TO WITHIN 300 NM CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS BY EARLY SUN...THEN SLOWLY RECURVING TO THE NORTH ALONG ROUGHLY 60W. CONSENSUS OF WAVE GUIDANCE INDICATES EASTERLY SWELL PROPAGATING WEST TO NEAR 75W WITH HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 12 FT BY LATE MON. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... SURFACE RIDGING N OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS ACROSS MAINLY THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TODAY. THIS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY STARTING FRI AS THE HIGH PRES WEAKENS. THE DEVELOPING LOW PRES MENTIONED ABOVE WILL PUSH W OF 55W BY EARLY SAT...POSSIBLY AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND TRACK NW TO WITHIN 300 NM NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS BY EARLY SUN. CURRENT GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE MAIN IMPACT ON THE ISLAND TO BE MINIMAL...BUT INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN VIGILANCE AS THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPS. TRADES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN DIMINISH FURTHER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA WEAKENS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECAST IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA... .NONE. SW N ATLANTIC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN