000 AGXX40 KNHC 230653 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 253 AM EDT THU AUG 23 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A PESKY SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS IN THE GULF POSITIONED FROM NEAR THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO S OF LOUISIANA NEAR 28N89W TO 25N95W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS CONTINUE TO ADVECT NE-E OF THIS TROUGH OVER A MAJORITY OF THE GULF WITH AIDED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT BY A TROUGH THAT REACHES FROM SE LOUISIANA TO NE MEXICO. MAINLY MODERATE WINDS COVER THE GULF OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION ALONG WITH 2-3 FT IN THE NE GULF AND 3-5 FT ELSEWHERE. THE SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK DISSIPATING BY LATE FRI INTO SAT. A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE FAR SW GULF FROM 22N96W TO 19N96W WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY NEAR ITS AXIS. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD INTO EASTERN MEXICO LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM ISAAC IN THE NE CARIBBEAN SEA IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24.0N 80.5W AS A MINIMAL HURRICANE SUN NIGHT...THEN TO THE E GULF NEAR 27.0N 83.5W MON NIGHT AS A SLIGHTLY STRONGER CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE. THE LATEST NOGAPS AND CMC MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHIFT WESTWARD... WHILE THE UKMET AND GFS HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY WESTWARD AS WELL. THE GFS TRACK TAKES ISAAC OVER EASTERN CUBA AND INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...THEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL KEYS TO JUST S OF MARCO ISLAND FLORIDA. THE 00Z ECMWF NOW BRINGS ISAAC OVER WESTERN CUBA AND JUST W OF KEY WEST FLORIDA BY MON MORNING. INTERESTS FROM FLORIDA TO THE N CENTRAL GULF SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ISAAC THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS CENTERED NEAR 15.5N 63.5W AT 2 AM EDT WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 KT GUSTS TO 50 KT. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 1003 MB AND ISAAC IS MOVING TO THE W AT 17 KT. A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT RECENTLY FOUND THE CENTER OF ISAAC REFORMING FARTHER S THAN PREVIOUS LOCATIONS. THE OUTER CIRCULATION OF ISAAC STRETCHES FROM 57W TO 70W WITH ASSOCIATED RAINBANDS MOVING ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO...AND NOW ACROSS THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. HEAVY BANDS ARE ALSO IMPACTING THE E CARIBBEAN ISLANDS AND CONDITIONS THERE SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE TODAY THROUGH FRI AS ISAAC SHIFTS WESTWARD. ISAAC IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TO A MINIMAL HURRICANE AS IT MOVES TO NEAR 17.5N 70.5W FRI MORNING NEAR OR OVER THE SW TIP OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...THEN MOVING OVER HAITI FRI NIGHT AND OVER EASTERN CUBA SAT NIGHT. THE HIGHEST SEAS WILL REMAIN ON THE N-NE SIDE OF THE STORM OUTSIDE OF THE IMMEDIATE CARIBBEAN...WITH LARGE SWELLS IMPACTING THE NE-E FACING SIDES OF THE ISLANDS. SOME OF THIS SWELL WILL MANAGE TO BLEED THROUGH THE ATLC PASSAGES. OTHERWISE...MODERATE NE-E WINDS COVER THE WATERS W OF 70W AHEAD OF ISSAC AND CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE OVER THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND WATERS S OF CUBA FRI THROUGH SUN...WHILE AREAS S-SW OF THERE CURRENTLY WILL SEE LITTLE IMPACTS OTHER THAN A WIND SHIFT. SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... 1023 MB ATLC HIGH PRES HAS SHIFTED NORTHWARD AS ADVERTISED TO THE NE OF BERMUDA NEAR 35N58W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SW TO NEAR THE SPACE COAST OF FLORIDA. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS DOMINATE THE AREA N OF 24N AS INDICATED BY A RECENT ASCAT PASS AS WELL AS BY IN-SITU OBSERVATIONS...WITH 2-4 FT SEAS OVER THE NW HALF OF THE REGION...AND MUCH HIGHER SEAS PROPAGATING IN FROM THE E-SE BEING GENERATED BY TROPICAL STORM ISAAC. THE POSITION AND TRACK FORECAST OF ISAAC IS MENTIONED IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA SECTION ABOVE...AND AS STATED THE HIGHEST ASSOCIATED SEAS WITH ISAAC WILL BE IN THE ATLC WATERS S OF 22N THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH OUTER SWELLS UP TO 8 FT REACHING TO 29N/30N BY SAT NIGHT. MEANWHILE...TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN NEAR 14.5N 41.5W AT 0300 UTC IS FORECAST TO CLIP THE EASTERN PORTION OF ZONE AMZ127 FRI NIGHT AS A TROPICAL STORM...THEN PERHAPS THE FAR EASTERN PART OF AMZ115 BY MON NIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING N OF 31N THEREAFTER. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECAST IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA... .TROPICAL STORM WARNING...AMZ023-025-027. NONE. SW N ATLANTIC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER LEWITSKY