000 AGXX40 KNHC 220702 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 302 AM EDT WED AUG 22 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A STATIONARY FRONT THAT WAS ALONG THE NW AND N CENTRAL COASTS OF THE U.S. GULF STATES HAS BECOME ILL-DEFINED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND ALL THAT REMAINS IS A NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE TROUGH WHICH STRETCHES FROM NEAR TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA TO 27N90W. THIS FEATURE WILL NOT MOVE MUCH DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTING THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO PUMP UP PLENTIFUL MOISTURE AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FOUND IN ALMOST EVERY ZONE. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THU. ANOTHER TROUGH REMAINS PARKED RIGHT ALONG THE E COAST OF MEXICO WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION CONCENTRATED THERE. NO DEVELOPMENT OF THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED THROUGH THU. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL EMERGE OFF OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATER THIS MORNING MARCHING ACROSS THE SW GULF THROUGH THU. OTHERWISE A WEAK EXTENSION OF ATLC RIDGING STRETCHES FROM NEAR TAMPA BAY FLORIDA TO 25N89W. MAINLY MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS COVER THE GULF OUTSIDE OF ANY AREAS OF CONVECTION WITH 1-3 FT SEAS IN THE FAR NW GULF AND 3-5 FT SEAS ELSEWHERE. THE RIDGING WILL SHIFT NW OVER THE SE U.S. LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR TROPICAL STORM ISAAC TO APPROACH THE FAR SE GULF FROM THE E-SE. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE IN THE SE GULF/STRAITS OF FLORIDA LATE SAT THROUGH SUN AS ISAAC MOVES CLOSER...ALTHOUGH THE EXACT STRENGTH...TIMING AND TRACK REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT DAY 4-5 SO INTERESTS ACROSS THE GULF SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR ITS PROGRESS THROUGH THE WEEK. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... TROPICAL STORM ISAAC CENTERED NEAR 15.6N 56.4W OR ABOUT 345 MILES E OF GUADELOUPE AT 2 AM EDT WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 KT GUSTS TO 45 KT. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 1004 MB AND ISAAC IS MOVING TO THE W OR 275 DEG AT 16 KT. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED NEAR THE CENTER WITH THE OUTER BANDS OF ISAAC NOW IMPACTING THE E CARIBBEAN ISLANDS SOME 400 NM W OF THE CENTER. DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD WESTWARD TOWARD THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO THROUGH THE DAY...THEN TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BY THU. THE HIGHEST SEAS WILL REMAIN ON THE N-NE SIDE OF THE STORM OUTSIDE OF THE IMMEDIATE CARIBBEAN...WITH LARGE SWELLS IMPACTING THE NE-E FACING SIDES OF THE ISLANDS. ISAAC IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE THU NIGHT JUST S-SW OF PUERTO RICO...THEN IT WILL MOVE OVER THE S CENTRAL TIP OF HISPANIOLA FRI NIGHT...OVER HAITI AND ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO EASTERN CUBA BY SAT NIGHT. OTHERWISE...ATLC RIDGING IS NE OF CUBA. A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE DAY. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE STRETCHING FROM S OF CENTRAL PUERTO RICO TO VENEZUELA NEAR 10N68W WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROUGH WED NIGHT...AND THEN THE W CARIBBEAN THU THROUGH SAT. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS...DUE TO A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGING AND TROPICAL WAVES ...IN THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY WITH A LULL EXPECTED AS ISAAC APPROACHES...AS WILL SIMILAR WINDS CURRENTLY OCCURRING IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... ATLC HIGH PRES IS CENTERED JUST S OF BERMUDA WITH A RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING WESTWARD TO NEAR THE SPACE COAST OF FLORIDA. WEAK MID TO UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE NW PORTION AND OTHER WATERS N OF 27N WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS CONTINUE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO SPREADING THROUGH AMZ123-125 WITH THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING BY JUST TO THE S OVER PUERTO RICO. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ARE IN PLACE OVER THE WATERS N OF 23N OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION... WITH MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS...LOCALLY STRONG IN AMZ127...S OF 23N. OUTER BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM ISAAC (SEE THE IMMEDIATE SECTION ABOVE FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION AS OF 2 AM EDT) ARE NOW IMPACTING AMZ127 ALONG WITH THE MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS. SEAS AT NDBC BUOY 41044 NEAR 21.6N 58.6W ARE ALREADY UP TO 10 FT AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS ISAAC EVENTUALLY STRENGTHENS TO A HURRICANE THU NIGHT. THE HIGH AND RIDGE MENTIONED ABOVE WILL RETREAT NORTHWARD AS ISAAC PROGRESSES WESTWARD AND FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OUTSIDE OF THE IMMEDIATE CIRCULATION OF ISAAC WILL SPREAD TO 25N WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND THE HIGH TO THE N. SWELLS UP TO 8 FT WILL REACH 27N BY FRI NIGHT THEN TO PERHAPS 30N OUTSIDE OF THE BAHAMAS SAT NIGHT. INTERESTS IN THE TURKS AND CAICOS... BAHAMAS AND SE FLORIDA...ALONG WITH THE GREATER ANTILLES SHOULD PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE LATEST ON ISAAC THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS THESE AREAS ARE CURRENTLY ALL IN THE CONE OF UNCERTAINTY. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECAST IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA... .TROPICAL STORM WARNING...AMZ023-025-027. NONE. SW N ATLANTIC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER LEWITSKY