000 AGXX40 KNHC 211006 AAA MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION...UPDATED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 606 AM EDT TUE AUG 21 2012 UPDATED FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHES FROM SE LOUISIANA TO JUST S OF THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER. PLENTIFUL MOISTURE AND UNSTABLE AIR CONTINUES TO BE PUMPED UP AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF...EXCEPT BEHIND THE TROUGH IN THE FAR NW GULF WHERE DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE IS PRESENT. A STATIONARY FRONT IS PARKED OUT ALONG THE NW AND N CENTRAL GULF COAST WITH A SURFACE TROUGH OUT AHEAD OF IT FROM NEAR THE FLORIDA BID BEND TO NEAR 26N95W...COINCIDENT WITH THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THESE FEATURES ARE FORECAST TO EVENTUALLY SLOWLY SHIFT E-SE THROUGH MID WEEK...DISSIPATING THU AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE NE. A SEPARATE SURFACE TROUGH IS JUST E OF THE MEXICAN COAST FROM NEAR 24N97W TO 19N96W. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO LINGER OVER THE SAME GENERAL AREA THROUGH THU...MOVING INLAND OVER MEXICO FINALLY BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE HIGH MENTIONED ABOVE PUSHES IN FROM THE NE. THIS TROUGH HAS A MEDIUM PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ALSO...A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY IN THE NW CARIBBEAN MAY CLIP THE SW GULF AND MERGE WITH THIS TROUGH LATER THIS WEEK. TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE IN THE ATLC MAY APPROACH THE FAR SE GULF THIS WEEKEND. A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WAS USED FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM WESTERN CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ACCOMPANYING IT. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AN AREA OF MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS IN THE W CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF JAMAICA IN THE LEE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS NEAR 60W AND IT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND THROUGH THE E CARIBBEAN TUE NIGHT...THEN THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT...AND INTO THE W CARIBBEAN FRI AND SAT. THE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH WED AND E-SE 20-25 KT WINDS WILL SET UP OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS LATER TODAY THROUGH LATE WED AS HIGH PRES NE OF THE AREA NOSES INTO THE AREA. TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE HAS FORMED NEAR 15.2N 51.2W 1007 MB AT 5 AM EDT MOVING W AT 17 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. NINE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TO A TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES TO 15.3N 53.8W THIS AFTERNOON...THEN TO 15.7N 57.2W TONIGHT...TO 16.0N 60.5W WED AFTERNOON...TO 16.3N 63.6W WED NIGHT WHILE STRENGTHENING TO A HURRICANE. NINE WILL THEN MOVE TO 16.9N 69.3W THU NIGHT...TO 18.0N 74.0W FRI NIGHT...AND TO 20.0N 77.3W SAT NIGHT. SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... 1021 MB HIGH PRES IS POSITIONED NEAR 28N62W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING WESTWARD TO N OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. WEAK TROUGHS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE REGION HELPING TO SPARK SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS. RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATES PRIMARILY LIGHT TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ACROSS THE SW N ATLC. THE EXCEPTION IS ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 22N WHERE EASTERLY 15-20 KT WINDS ARE PRESENT. WINDS WILL INCREASE AND SEAS WILL BUILD BEGINNING IN AMZ125 LATER TODAY...SPREADING W-NW AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA. NINE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC AND CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BUT REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN SW N ATLC WATERS BETWEEN THE HIGH...WHICH WILL BE RETREATING NORTHWARD... AND NINE RESULTING IN FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS AND THE HIGHEST SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH NINE N OF THE ISLANDS WHERE A LENGTHENING AND PERSISTENT EASTERLY FETCH WILL BE. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECAST IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA... .TROPICAL STORM WARNING...AMZ023-025-027. SW N ATLANTIC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER LEWITSKY