000 AGXX40 KNHC 170749 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 349 AM EDT FRI AUG 17 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... THE FAR WESTERN EXTENSION OF A WEAK ATLC RIDGE REACHES FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS ALONG 27N WITH GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE GULF N OF 25N...AND SE GULF WATERS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE/SW GULF AND A RECENT ASCAT PASS SHOWED 15-20 KT WINDS S OF 24N W OF 87W WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ALSO OCCURRING. THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO DRIFT W-NW DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE LOW PRES MAY DEVELOP ALONG IT. THIS AREA OF WEATHER HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...ASSUMING IT REMAINS OFFSHORE THROUGH THAT PERIOD. MODEL GUIDANCE IS CERTAINLY IN DISAGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THIS WAVE/POTENTIAL LOW WITH THE GFS DEVELOPING THE LOW ON SAT THEN TAKING IT INLAND...AND THEN MOVING IT BACK OFFSHORE AND TAKING IT NORTHWARD SUN THROUGH WED WHILE INTENSIFYING. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF DOES SHOW A TROUGH/BROAD LOW LINGERING IN THE FAR W CENTRAL GULF THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH AT MOST 15-20 KT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH IT COMPARED TO UP TO STORM FORCE WINDS WITH THE GFS SOLUTION. WEIGHTED THE FORECAST WITH THE MORE CONSERVATIVE SOLUTION UNTIL MORE AGREEMENT IS REALIZED. AT ANY RATE...ASSOCIATED MOISTURE AND CONVECTION WILL PRODUCE VERY WET WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT IS OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS WITH A RECENT ASCAT PASS MEASURING 20-25 KT WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. MEANWHILE 15-20 KT WINDS ARE IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS WHERE THE PRES GRADIENT IS ALSO TIGHT BETWEEN A TROUGH OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND ATLC RIDGING NE OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. A TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE EASTERN ISLANDS...CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE TROPICAL N ATLC. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ACCOMPANYING THIS WAVE ALONG WITH 15-20 KT WINDS AND SEAS TO 7 FT. THE WAVE WILL ENTER THE FAR E CARIBBEAN SAT...MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN LATE SUN THROUGH MON...THEN ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN WED AND THU. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MON THROUGH THU WITH THE WAVE PASSAGE WHILE HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA STRENGTHENS. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS AHEAD OF THE WAVE. SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... WEAK 1016 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 27N75W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM S FLORIDA THROUGH THE WEAK HIGH TO A PARENT HIGH NEAR 27N55W. RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASSES INDICATED PRIMARILY LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE SW N ATLC WATERS AND BUOY AND SHIP REPORTS INDICATE PREDOMINATELY 1-3 FT N OF 26N AND 2-4 FT S OF 26N. A FAST MOVING TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO CLIP THE SOUTHERN WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK HELPING TO ENHANCE WINDS TO 15-20 KT ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 23N. SQUALLY CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE WAVE IN ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. TROUGHINESS OVER THE SE UNITED STATES SAT INTO MON WILL INCREASE THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THE NW AND N CENTRAL WATERS WITH WINDS OCCASIONALLY INCREASING TO 15-20 KT AS A RESULT. OTHERWISE ATLC HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS AND WAVEWATCH MODELS WERE FOLLOWED FOR THE CARIBBEAN...TROPICAL N ATLC AND SW N ATLC OFFSHORE WATERS AREAS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF AT DAY 4-5 TO ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY WITH A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE WHICH HAS MOVED OFF AFRICA WHICH WILL GRADUALLY APPROACH 55W BY WED INTO THU. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECAST IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA... .NONE. SW N ATLANTIC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER LEWITSKY