000 AGXX40 KNHC 161847 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 247 PM EDT THU AUG 16 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... WESTERN EXTENSION OF WEAK ATLC RIDGE CONTINUES FROM SW N ATLC W ACROSS FLORIDA ALONG 27N AND INTO NW GULF TODAY WITH GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN...AND SEAS 2 FT OR LESS E OF 90W AND 2-4 FT W OF 90W. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED NEXT 48 HOURS. TROPICAL WAVE SHIFTING W-NW OFF OF YUCATAN AND INTO SW GULF WILL SHIFT SLOWLY NW ACROSS THE SW GULF AND INTO MEXICO 48-72 HRS. DIURNAL AND OROGRAPHIC FACTORS THAT YIELD FREQUENT COASTAL TROUGHING ALONG THE SRN MEXICAN COAST WILL AID IN ATTEMPT AT CYCLOGENESIS...WHILE MAJORITY OF WAVE ENERGY SHIFTS FURTHER INLAND. ENHANCED SELY FLOW WILL PRODUCE WINDS 15-20 KT AND POSSIBLY HIGHER ACROSS SW AND W PORTIONS WITH SEAS BUILDING IN EXCESS OF 6 FT. HAVE GONE ABOVE MODEL WAVE GUIDANCE ACROSS THE AREA AND MORE IN LINE WITH ENSEMBLE MAXES TO ALLOW FOR POTENTIAL DEEPENING OF A LOW ALONG THE ALONG LOWER MEXICAN COAST...GRADUALLY DRIFTING N-NW NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ASSOCIATED MOISTURE AND CONVECTION WILL PRODUCE VERY WET WEATHER ACROSS SRN MEXICO NEXT FEW DAYS. SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 65W... HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL REORGANIZE AS GORDON LIFTS NE THEN E OVER THE RIDGE...AND ALIGN SLIGHTLY S ALONG 26N THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH MODERATE SELY TRADES ACROSS S PORTIONS THROUGH THE BAHAMAS...THAT MAY BE ENHANCED BY TROPICAL WAVE RACING TOWARD CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON. SAL AND LLVL JET WITH THIS WAVE WILL MOVE INTO SE PORTIONS LATE FRI NIGHT AND S OF 25N BY SUN MORNING...ALLOWING FOR SQUALLS AND GUSTY WINDS IN CONVECTION ALONG LEADING EDGE OF WAVE RELATED MOISTURE. LOW ACROSS SE U.S. BY SUN WILL INCREASE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS NW WATERS AND PRODUCE SW WINDS 15-20 KT. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... AS STATED YESTERDAY...I HAVE MY DOUBTS THAT TROPICAL WAVE PREVIOUSLY IN CARIBBEAN WAS TRULY ATTRIBUTED TO ANY SIGNIFICANT WAVE ENERGY THAT SEVERED AWAY FROM WHAT IS NOW GORDON...AND WITH LITTLE SIGNAL TO FOLLOW...WAVE HAS BEEN DROPPED FROM SFC MAP. MODERATE SELY FLOW CONTINUES IN GULF OF HONDURAS AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH 24 HOURS WHILE ABUNDANT MOISTURE TRAILING YUCATAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL LINGERING ACROSS THE FAR W CARIB NEXT FEW DAYS FOR ACTIVE CONVECTION. MODEST PRES GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SAT ACROSS CENTRAL CARIB FOR FRESH TRADES BUT SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS. ATLC TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO RACE WWD AND IS ENTERING TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS ATTM...WITH MODEST INCREASE IN WIND AND SEAS. LLVL JET AND ASSOCIATED INCREASED SFC WINDS NEAR 20 KT WILL SHIFT WWD BETWEEN 14N AND 20N AND INTO EASTERN CARIBBEAN NEXT 24 HOURS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE SAL AND LLVL JET WILL MOVE INTO CARIB...AND MORE W-NW ACROSS THE NE CARIB AND ISLANDS AND CONTINUE ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES TO PRODUCE SQUALLY WEATHER AND STRONG WIND GUSTS IN CONVECTION. CORRECTION TO YESTERDAYS DISCUSSION...REMNANTS OF T.D. 7 ARE THE TROPICAL WAVE EXITING THE YUCATAN AND NOT WHAT HAS BECOME GORDON. THE WAVE THAT HAS BECOME GORDON WAS THE VERY WELL DEFINED AND VIGOROUS WAVE EXITING AFRICA LATE LAST WEEK...WITH T.D. 7 THE WAVE JUST AHEAD OF IT. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECAST IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA... .NONE. SW N ATLANTIC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING