000 AGXX40 KNHC 091903 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 330 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO SKIRTS THE SOUTHERN COAST OF BAY OF CAMPECHE ON ITS WESTWARD TRACK. ERNESTO MOVES INLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND QUICKLY WEAKENS BUT ITS ENORMOUS AMOUNT OF RAINFALL WILL SOAK SOUTHERN MEXICO FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS OR MORE ALTHOUGH CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE EARLIER THIS MORNING. ERNESTO EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO SHIFT TO A MORE SW HEADING BEFORE DISSIPATING OVER INLAND MEXICO EARLY SAT. SWELLS GENERATED BY ERNESTO HAVE PEAKED NEAR 14 FT AND HAVE SUBSIDED WITH LITTLE NORTHWARD INTRUSION. TORRENTIAL RAINS...FLASH FLOODING...AND COASTAL FLOODING REMAIN MOST IMMEDIATE IMPACTS OF ERNESTO THIS AFTERNOON...WITH FADING LONG PERIOD SE SWELL TO CONTINUE TO AFFECT COASTAL AROUND BAY OF CAMPECHE. ELSEWHERE...WEAK RIDGE ALONG 27N-28N IN N GULF PERSIST THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT TO MODERATE E-SE BREEZE AROUND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF RIDGE WITH LIGHT SW-W BREEZE ELSEWHERE N OF RIDGE AXIS. CREST OF APPROACHING CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 78W ENTERS SE GULF ZONES FRI NIGHT WITH WINDS SHIFTING NE AND INCREASING TO FRESH BREEZE BUILDING SEAS ALONG STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO 5-6 FT. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... ERNESTO NO LONGER AFFECTING BASIN. TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 78W MOVE W ACROSS WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND GREATER ANTILLES HAS CREST INTERACTING FAVORABLY WITH AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENT FLOW CAUSED BY WELL DEFINE CYCLONE ALOFT COMBINATION PRODUCES NUMEROUS CLUSTERS OF DEEP CONVECTION PRESENTLY OVER HAITI...WINDWARD PASSAGE...EASTERN CUBA AND SOUTHERN BAHAMA ISLANDS. MAIN AXIS OF WAVE EXPECTED TO MOVE W WHILE CREST COULD BREAK OFF AND FOLLOW A MORE NW PATH ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL FLOW. STRONG WIND SURGE ALONG AND E OF WAVE AXIS WITH STRONG BREEZE ACROSS CENTRAL CARIB TONIGHT AND SEAS 8-9 FT ...AND POSSIBLE 30 KT AND 10 FT ALONG WINDWARD PASSAGE. ABUNDANT MOISTURE POINTS TO THE POSSIBILITY OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA WHEN DAYTIME HEATING ENTERS THE EQUATION FRI. SECOND WELL ORGANIZED TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 41W EXPECTED TO REACH TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS LATE SAT. WAVE BEING MONITOR FOR SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD POTENTIAL TO BECOME TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN NEXT TWO DAYS. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFER IN TRACK AND TIMING OF SYSTEM BUT ALL AGREE IN DEVELOPMENT ITS INTENSITY. FORECAST BASED ON BLEND OF THE FAST AND AGGRESSIVE GFS WITH A MORE MODERATE AND SLOWER EUROPEAN. SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... HIGH PRES CENTER 1023 MB OVER CENTRAL ATLC E OF BERMUDA HAS RIDGE EXTEND W-SW TO CENTRAL FLORIDA. MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS ENTIRE BASIN NEXT FEW DAYS...EXCEPT ACROSS N-NE SEMICIRCLE OF REMNANTS OF FLORENCE...WHICH WILL TRACK NW TONIGHT AND WEAKEN AS IT VEERS AROUND ATLC RIDGE. GUSTY FRESH TO STRONG WINDS MAY BE FELT IN VICINITY OF DEEP CONVECTION IN AREAS AFFECTED BY TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 78W. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECAST IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE GULF OF MEXICO... .TROPICAL STORM WARNING...GMZ023-025. CARIBBEAN SEA... .NONE. SW N ATLANTIC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER WALLY BARNES