000 AGXX40 KNHC 090758 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 400 AM EDT THU AUG 9 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO HAS EMERGED OFF THE WRN YUCATAN COAST IN THE STATE OF CAMPECHE AND HAS ACCELERATED WWD OVER WATER...AND EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY TO HURRICANE STRENGTH THIS MORNING. PEMEX BUOY CS2 WAS LOCATED IN NRN SEMICIRCLE ABOUT 50 NM N OF ERNESTO AT 06Z REPORTED SEAS AT 14 FT. FORECAST FOR ERNESTO REMAINS VERY SIMILAR WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD MOTION FROM RECENT FORECASTS. ERNESTO EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO BEND W-SW THIS MORNING AND MAKE LANDFALL AGAIN JUST PRIOR TO 18Z NEAR 18.5N 95W. CENTRAL GULF BUOYS PEAKED THIS AFTERNOON WITH 5-6 FT OF SE SWELL AT 10-12 SECS AND ARE SLOWLY ABATING NOW. PEAK SWELL ENERGY WILL NOW BE DIRECTED ACROSS SW QUARTER OF THE BASIN AND HIT THE MEXICAN COAST S OF 22N HARDEST TODAY WITH FETCH GENERATED WAVES ON RIGHT SIDE OF STORM MOTION...OR N SEMICIRCLE. TORRENTIAL RAINS...FLASH FLOODING...AND COASTAL FLOODING REMAIN MOST IMMEDIATE IMPACTS OF ERNESTO TODAY...WITH FADING LONG PERIOD SE SWELL TO CONTINUE TO AFFECT TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTLINES THROUGHOUT DAY. WIND AND SEAS NOT EXPECTED TO DIMINISH QUICKLY ACROSS THE SW GULF UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. WEAK RIDGING ACROSS N GULF WILL PERSIST NEXT FEW DAYS UNTIL THE NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST...TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIB...MOVES INTO THE SE GULF FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT. S TO SE FLOW AND AMPLE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE EXPECTED BEHIND WAVE TO AFFECT THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...S FL...AND THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... ERNESTO HAS EMERGED ACROSS THE SW GULF OF MEXICO AND ALL WARNINGS WERE DISCONTINUED OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN DURING THE EVENING HOURS. SOME STRONG SE WINDS AND BATTERING SURF ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THIS MORNING ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS...AND COASTAL BELIZE AND MEXICO. MOISTURE TRAILING ERNESTO WILL CONTRIBUTE TO CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS MOVING NW ACROSS NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS TODAY...AND WILL PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING. TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 74W WILL MOVE W-NW ACROSS THE CENTRAL BASIN AND GREATER ANTILLES NEXT 12-24 HOURS AND CONTINUE TO INTERACT FAVORABLY WITH VIGOROUS TUTT LOW TO PRODUCE VERY ACTIVE WEATHER. WAVE WILL THEN MOVE MORE NW LATE FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND CROSS FROM NW CARIB INTO SE GULF AND YUCATAN PENINSULA. STRONG WIND SURGE WITH AND BEHIND WAVE WILL KEEP WINDS 20-25 KT ACROSS CENTRAL CARIB TODAY...WITH SEAS 8-9 FT...AND POTENTIAL MAX OF 30 KT AND 10 FT OFF SRN COAST OF BARAHONA D.R. AND HAITI. BEST MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS LOOK TO AFFECT MOSTLY MARINE AREAS TODAY...AND ACROSS JAMAICA THEN INTO CUBA ON FRIDAY...WITH WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TODAY TO COMBINE WITH DIURNAL FORCING FOR STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS HISPANIOLA. SECOND WELL ORGANIZED TROPICAL WAVE WILL REACH TROPICAL N ATLC OFFSHORE WATERS SAT AFTERNOON INTO SAT NIGHT AND CURRENTLY HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE BY THAT TIME. MODELS HAVE WIDELY VARYING SOLUTIONS WITH THIS FEATURE...WITH GFS MUCH FASTER AND TO S OF EUROPEAN SOLUTIONS. FORECAST IS BASED ON SOMEWHAT OF A COMPROMISE OF GFS...ECMWF...AND TCVN. SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... HIGH PRES CENTER 1025 MB OVER CENTRAL ATLC E OF BERMUDA HAS RIDGE EXTEND W-SW TO C CENTRAL FLORIDA. MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS ENTIRE BASIN NEXT FEW DAYS...EXCEPT ACROSS N-NE SEMICIRCLE OF REMNANTS OF FLORENCE...WHICH WILL TREK NW ACROSS THE SE WATERS TODAY THEN TURN MORE N-NW AND SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT ROUNDS THE W PERIPHERY OF THE ATLC RIDGE. FRESH FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE ATLC COASTAL WATERS OF HISPANIOLA...SE BAHAMAS...AND WINDWARD PASSAGE DAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH CENTRAL CARIB TROPICAL WAVES...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECAST IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE GULF OF MEXICO... .TROPICAL STORM WARNING...GMZ023-025. .HURRICANE WARNING...GMZ023-025. CARIBBEAN SEA... .NONE. SW N ATLANTIC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING