000 AGXX40 KNHC 081901 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT WED AUG 8 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO IS THE MAIN AND ONLY FEATURE OF IMPORTANCE IN THE GULF BASIN. IT HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED BY ITS INLAND PATH AND EXPECTED TO EMERGE IN THE SOUTHERNMOST PART OF BAY OF CAMPECHE BUT KEEP PLENTY OF ITS CIRCULATION REMAINING OVER LAND. WHILE ERNESTO COULD POSSIBLY INTENSIFY AGAIN...ITS CIRCULATION INTERRUPTED BY LAND MASS AND THE LITTLE TIME IT IS TRACKING OVER WATER...IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO GAIN ENOUGH STRENGTH TO RETURN TO ITS PREVIOUS HURRICANE STATUS. STILL ITS CIRCULATION REMAINS WELL DEFINED...OUTFLOW REMAINS INTACT AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE...HENCE PRECIPITATION... MAKES ERNESTO A FEATURE OF DEEP CONCERN. WELL ESTABLISHED ANTICYCLONE OVERHEAD HELPS ERNESTO SUSTAIN WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. ANOTHER CONCERN WITH ERNESTO IS ITS SWELLS HEADED N-NW TOWARDS CENTRAL GULF. MODEL GUIDANCE BUILD SEAS TO 7-8 FT AS FAR N AS 26N PEAKING EARLY TONIGHT THEN SUBSIDING BELOW 4 FT THU AND THEREAFTER. OTHERWISE...WESTERN EXTENSION OF BROAD ATLC RIDGE ALONG 28N MAINTAINS LIGHT TO MODERATE E TO SE BREEZE OVER ITS SOUTHERN PERIPHERY WHILE LIGHT S TO SW WIND ELSEWHERE N OF ITS AXIS. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... ERNESTO HAS MOVED WELL INLAND ALL WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. SOME STRONG SE WINDS AND BATTERING SURF ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT IT SHOULD BE THE LAST EFFECT OF ERNESTO. LARGE RAINBANDS COULD PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS AND INDUCE FLOODING ACROSS PENINSULA NEXT 12 HOURS. TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 70W MOVE W ACROSS BASIN THROUGH SUN MAY INDUCE FRESH E BREEZE NEAR ITS AXIS ALONG WITH SQUALLY WEATHER. WAVE BRING ABUNDANT MOISTURE INTO GREATER ANTILLES AND THREAT OF COPIOUS RAINFALL OVER ISLANDS IS VERY REAL. SECOND TROPICAL WAVE APPROACH EASTERN TROPICAL N ATLC OFFSHORE WATERS LATE SAT INTO SUN. REMNANTS OF POST-TROPICAL LOW PRES FLORENCE MOVE ACROSS FAR N PORTIONS OF TROPICAL ATLC WATERS TONIGHT WITH FRESH EASTERLY BREEZE AND SUBSIDING SEAS STAYING E OF 65W. SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... HIGH PRES CENTER 1025 MB E OF BERMUDA HAS RIDGE EXTEND W-SW TO CENTRAL FLORIDA. MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS ENTIRE BASIN EXCEPT AS NOTED IN ABOVE PARAGRAPH AND POSSIBLY SMALL AREA OF FRESH WINDS AND SQUALLY WEATHER JUST N OF THE GREATER ANTILLES RESULTING FROM TROPICAL WAVE IN CARIBBEAN. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECAST IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE GULF OF MEXICO... .TROPICAL STORM WARNING...GMZ023-025. CARIBBEAN SEA... .NONE. SW N ATLANTIC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER WALLY BARNES