000 AGXX40 KNHC 080801 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 400 AM EDT WED AUG 8 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A ZONE OF SAL TRAILING THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT EVOLVED INTO ERNESTO HAS MOVED NW ACROSS S FLORIDA DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS AND IS NOW SHIFTING W-NW ACROSS THE EXTREME SE GULF. ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE CONVERGING ACROSS THIS AREA YESTERDAY IS BECOMING STRETCHED NE TO SW WHILE SHIFTING W...WITH BEST MOISTURE N AND NW OF YUCATAN PENINSULA ATTM. WELL ESTABLISHED ANTICYCLONE OVERHEAD OF ERNESTO YIELDING SUBSIDENCE ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN S OF 22N THIS MORNING AND WILL LIMIT CNVTV GROWTH TODAY. ERNESTO HAS MOVED WELL INLAND ACROSS THE YUCATAN...BUT WITH CORE LOW-MID LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINING INTACT FOR SUSTAINED DEEP CNVTN...ALBEIT TOPS ARE WARMING. CENTER OF ERNESTO EXPECTED TO EXIT LAND AND BEGIN TO MOVE BACK OVER THE WATERS OF FAR ERN BAY OF CAMPECHE SHORTLY AFTER 18Z TODAY AND EXPECTED TO MOVE W THROUGH TONIGHT AND THEN VEER SLIGHTLY WSW AND INLAND AGAIN BY AROUND 00Z FRI. STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED ONCE OVER WATER...REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH AGAIN PRIOR TO LANDFALL. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE NW CORNER OF THE YUCATAN WILL LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT WAVE GROWTH WHILE ERNESTO REMAINS OVER LAND WITH STORM FORCE WINDS OVER WATER OCCURRING OVER W QUAD WELL BEFORE ERNESTO EXITS THE PENINSULA. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED TYPICAL GROWTH RATES ONCE ERNESTO EMERGES OVER WATER DUE TO THE WELL ESTABLISHED N TO NE FETCH CURRENTLY DEVELOPING AND CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THIS MORNING. CENTRAL GULF BUOYS ALREADY SHOWING SMALL SE SWELL AT 10 SECONDS WHICH WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING...BUILDING TO THE 4-6 FT RANGE BY AFTERNOON. THIS SWELL TO ARRIVE ALONG THE N AND NW GULF COASTS THIS MORNING AND PEAK AT 2-4 FT LATE THIS EVENING. TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES ALONG THE PATH OF ERNESTO NEXT 48 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... ERNESTO HAS MOVED WELL INLAND TONIGHT BUT WITH STORM FORCE WINDS AND SEAS 10-15 FT STILL LINGERING ACROSS THE NW CARIB OFFSHORE OF BELIZE AND MEXICO...WITH BATTERING SURF. LARGE RAINBANDS WILL PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS AND INDUCE FLOODING ACROSS THE PENINSULA NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY ABATE ACROSS THE W AND NW CARIB BUT WITH SE WINDS AND SWELL AFFECTING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND COASTAL WATERS OF MEXICO AND BELIZE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE SUBSIDING. NEXT TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE ERN CARIB ALONG 68W WILL MOVE W ACROSS THE BASIN NEXT FEW DAYS AND ENCOUNTER SELY STEERING FLOW BEHIND ERNESTO TO TAKE A MORE NW TRAJECTORY BY 48 HOURS. THIS WILL RAKE THE GREATER ANTILLES WITH A LLVL WIND SURGE...VERY SQUALLY WEATHER AND ENHANCED E TO SE TRADES TO AROUND 25 KT AS THIS WAVE TREKS W AND NW. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH THE EASTERN TROPICAL N ATLC OFFSHORE WATERS LATE SAT INTO SUN. THE REMNANTS OF POST-TROPICAL LOW FLORENCE WILL MOVE ACROSS FAR N PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS WED AND WED NIGHT WITH MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING N-NE OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS. SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... 1024 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES HAS SHIFTED EWD PAST 24 HOURS AND NOW IN CENTRAL ATLC DUE E OF BERMUDA...WITH WEAK RIDGING EXTENDING W-SW TO FLORIDA. MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS DOMINATE THE SW N ATLC...WITH 15-20 KT WINDS S OF 23N NEAR THE COASTS OF CUBA AND HISPANIOLA. THE REMNANTS OF FLORENCE WILL NEAR 59W BY 00Z TONIGHT THEN BEGIN TO VEER MORE NW AND REACH AND 65W BY 00Z FRI...WITH AN ASSOCIATED WIND SURGE AND PEAK IN WIND SWELL MOVING INTO THE SE WATERS LATE THU. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH GLOBAL MODELS ON THIS FEATURE...AND TO A MUCH LARGER DEGREE WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC AND NEXT WAVE APPROACHING W COAST OF AFRICA. GFS IS MUCH FASTER WITH THESE FEATURES AND EURO MODELS AND HAVE TRIED TO TAKE A MEAN POSITION. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECAST IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE GULF OF MEXICO... .TROPICAL STORM WARNING...GMZ023-025. CARIBBEAN SEA... .TROPICAL STORM WARNING...AMZ011. SW N ATLANTIC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING