000 AGXX40 KNHC 071802 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 202 PM EDT TUE AUG 7 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO CONVERGE ACROSS THE SE GULF AND FLORIDA PENINSULA...DRIFTING SLOWLY W-NW. A SURFACE TROUGH REACHES FROM NEAR 27N86W TO THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N88W. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS DOMINATED THE GULF THIS MORNING AHEAD OF ERNESTO CURRENTLY IN THE NW CARIBBEAN...ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS HAVE HAVE BEEN RAPIDLY DETERIORATING IN AND NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WHERE AN EARLIER SHIP OBSERVATION MEASURED 20-30 KT WINDS. STRONGER WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTER CIRCULATION OF ERNESTO WILL WRAP AROUND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ACROSS THE S CENTRAL GULF AND SPREADING INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND SW GULF TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED AS ERNESTO MOVES INLAND OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA. ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO EMERGE IN THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WED EVENING...MOVING ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THROUGH THU...THEN MOVING INTO MAINLAND MEXICO THU EVENING INTO EARLY FRI WHERE IT WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE. ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO RESTRENGTHEN TO A MINIMAL HURRICANE OVER THE SW GULF AFTER EMERGING BACK OVER WATER BEFORE MOVING BACK INLAND ONE LAST TIME. OTHERWISE...A RIDGE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF ALONG 28N WED THROUGH SAT WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS PERSISTING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS...ALTHOUGH SOME SE-E SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH ERNESTO WILL MANAGE TO PROPAGATE INTO THE N CENTRAL AND NW GULF WATERS THROUGH THE WEEK...QUICKLY SUBSIDING BY SAT. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... ERNESTO HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE WITH THE 2PM INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY BASED ON DATA FROM RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT. ERNESTO IS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN APPROACHING THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND IS NOW FORECAST TO REMAIN A HURRICANE PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL NEAR THE MEXICO/BELIZE BORDER. THE WIND AND WAVE FIELDS OF ERNESTO CONTINUE TO BE STRONGLY WEIGHTED TO THE N-NE SEMICIRCLE WITH A LONG AND HEALTHY FETCH NE-E OF THE SYSTEM HELPING TO GENERATE AND SPREAD EASTERLY SWELL INTO THE WATERS OF THE CAYMANS AND JAMAICA...AND THE REMAINDER OF THE NW CARIBBEAN. UNFORTUNATELY ERNESTO HAS CAUSED SENSOR ISSUES WITH NDBC BUOY 42057 WHICH IS NOT REPORTING WINDS SINCE SHORTLY AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE STORM CENTER...ALTHOUGH A NEARBY BACKUP BUOY/SENSOR MAY BE ACTIVATED SOON. STORM FORCE WINDS AND HIGH SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE COASTAL ZONES OF BELIZE AND NE MEXICO AFTER ERNESTO MOVES INLAND BEFORE CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE RAPIDLY WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. OTHERWISE A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM NEAR THE ANEGADA PASSAGE SOUTH TO N-NE VENEZUELA. THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO TREK W THROUGH WED...AND THEN W-NW THU AND THU NIGHT AS IT REACHES THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND BEGINS TO RESPOND TO VEERING FLOW IN THE WAKE OF ERNESTO. FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE WAVE OVER PRIMARILY THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY LATE WED INTO THU...SPREADING INTO PORTIONS OF THE NW CARIBBEAN BY THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH THE EASTERN TROPICAL N ATLC OFFSHORE WATERS LATE SAT INTO SUN. THE REMNANTS OF POST-TROPICAL LOW FLORENCE WILL MOVE ACROSS FAR N PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS WED AND WED NIGHT WITH MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING N-NE OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS. SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... 1022 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM E-NE OF BERMUDA WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SW OF THE HIGH CENTER TO NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA. LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION HAS BEGUN TO ERODE FROM THE NW BAHAMAS EASTWARD AS DRIER AIR ALOFT ATTEMPTS TO PUSH IN FROM THE NE-E. MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS DOMINATE THE SW N ATLC...WITH 20 KT WINDS LOCALLY S OF 23N NEAR THE COASTS OF EASTERN CUBA AND HISPANIOLA. SEAS ARE 3-5 FT ACROSS THE WATERS EXCEPT 1-3 FT IN THE IMMEDIATE LEE OF THE BAHAMAS. A SURFACE TROUGH REACHES FROM 30N60W TO 22N69W WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OCCURRING NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE TROUGH E OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS. THIS TROUGH WILL REMAIN STATIONARY TODAY...DISSIPATING BY WED. THE REMNANTS OF FLORENCE WILL NEAR 60W BY 00Z THU AND 65W BY 00Z FRI...WITH AN ASSOCIATED WIND SURGE AND PEAK IN WIND SWELL MOVING INTO THE SE WATERS LATE THU. THESE REMNANTS...IN THE FORM OF A TROUGH OR TROPICAL WAVE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT W-NW ACROSS THE SW N ATLC THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...DISSIPATING BY SAT AS HIGH PRES REBUILDS IN FROM THE NE-E. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECAST IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE GULF OF MEXICO... .TROPICAL STORM WARNING...GMZ025. CARIBBEAN SEA... .HURRICANE WARNING...AMZ011-013-017-019. SW N ATLANTIC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER LEWITSKY