000 AGXX40 KNHC 070805 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 405 AM EDT TUE AUG 7 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO CONVERGE ACROSS THE SE GULF AND FLORIDA PENINSULA OVERNIGHT AND WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NW AND EXTEND FROM N OF THE YUCATAN NE THROUGH MUCH OF FLORIDA PANHANDLE WITH POCKETS OF DEEP CNVTN. UPPER LOW ACROSS MUCH OF W HALF OF BASIN WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT W AND INLAND ACROSS MEXICO TODAY BUT WILL MAINTAIN INSTABILITY W OF 91W. OTHERWISE...WEAK HIGH PRES PREVAILS ACROSS THE W GULF YIELDING LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN. ERNESTO IN THE W CARIBBEAN IS APPROACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH AND FORECAST TO DO SO BY THIS EVENING AS IT MOVES W-NW TOWARDS THE MEXICO-BELIZE BORDER. FRESHENING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS WILL SPREAD FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND SE GULF S OF 24N...WWD TO THE WATERS OFF OF THE YUCATAN AND NW OF THE PENINSULA. ERNESTO FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND TONIGHT AND THEN WEAKEN AS IT TREKS NEARLY W ACROSS THE PENINSULA...AND EMERGE AROUND 00Z THU AS A TS IN THE FAR ERN BAY OF CAMPECHE AND CONTINUE W AND THEN INLAND AGAIN FRI MORNING. ALTHOUGH ERNESTO WILL BE INLAND FOR ABOUT 18 HRS...SUFFICIENT LLVL WINDS ACCOMPANYING THE CORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE AREAS OF N TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...OR JUST BELOW...ALONG COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN HIGH SEAS. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 65W... A 1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED E OF BERMUDA EXTENDING W TO SC/GA COASTS. THE LLVL WIND AND MOISTURE SURGE MOVING ACROSS THE NRN PERIPHERY OF ERNESTO HAS MOVED THROUGH THE SRN FLORIDA AND W CUBA...WITH WINDS AND SEAS SLOWLY ABATING ACROSS THE BAHAMAS BANK AND THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. AS ERNESTO MOVES W ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN...THE ATLC HIGH WILL ATTEMPT TO BUILD W ACROSS THE ATLC AND INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA NEXT 24-48 HRS...BUT WILL BE SOMEWHAT INTERRUPTED BY LLVL TROUGHS MOVING W IN THE DEEPER ELYS. FIRST TROUGH CURRENTLY FROM N OF PUERTO RICO NE INTO CENTRAL ATLC WILL REACH REACH 71-72W BY THIS TIME TONIGHT AND INTERACT WITH TUTT LOW IN THE VCNTY TO PRODUCE CNVTN ON E SIDE OF TROUGH. SECOND TROUGH...REMNANTS OF FLORENCE WILL NEAR 60W BY 00Z THU AND 65-66W BY 00Z FRI. AN ASSOCIATED WIND SURGE AND PEAK IN WIND SWELL WILL MOVE INTO THE SE WATERS LATE THU. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL ATLC W OF 55W... T.S. ERNESTO EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN TO HURRICANE BY THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE W-NW INTO THE YUCATAN NEAR THE BELIZE-MEXICO BORDER. WIND AND WAVE FIELD OF ERNESTO STRONGLY WEIGHTED TO N-NE SEMICIRCLE AND SPREADING E-NE SWELL INTO THE CAYMANS AND NW CARIB ATTM...AND LOCALLY GENERATED HIGH SEAS SPREADING FROM N OF JAMAICA W-NW TOWARDS SW CUBA. A 2230Z JASON PASS WITHIN 30 NM W OF ERNESTO DID NOT MEASURE ANY 12 FT SEAS...WHICH IS SOMEWHAT SUSPECT BUT IS SOMEWHAT CORROBORATED BY INTERNAL TC WAVE PROGRAMS HERE. ALL THE GLOBAL WAVE MODELS ARE THUS WELL OVERESTIMATING THE WAVE FIELD WITH ERNESTO...WITH THE UKMET WAVE MODEL CLOSEST IN TIMING AND POSITION OF CURRENT CONDITIONS. ERNESTO ALSO APPEARS TO HAVE CAUSED SENSOR ISSUES WITH BUOY 42057 WHICH IS NOT REPORTING WINDS SINCE SHORTLY AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE STORM CENTER. STORM FORCE WINDS AND HIGH SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE COASTAL ZONES OF BELIZE AND NE MEXICO AFTER ERNESTO MOVES INLAND BEFORE CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE RAPIDLY LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. NEXT TROPICAL WAVE MOVING INTO THE SE CARIB ATTM WILL CONTINUE TO TREK W AND THEN W-NW THU AND THU NIGHT AS IT REACHES THE CENTRAL CARIB AND BEGINS TO RESPOND TO VEERING FLOW IN THE WAKE OF ERNESTO. REMNANTS OF FLORENCE WILL MOVE ACROSS N PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS WED AND WED NIGHT WITH MOST WIND AND HIGHER SEAS N OF THE AREA. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECAST IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA... .TROPICAL STORM WARNING AMZ011-013-017-019. .HURRICANE WARNING AMZ011-013-017-019. SW N ATLANTIC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING