000 AGXX40 KNHC 060812 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 412 AM EDT MON AUG 6 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... REMNANTS OF LLVL TROUGH ACROSS FLORIDA YDA HAVE SHIFTED W AND INTO FAR E GULF...WITH LLVL CYCLONE SUGGESTED BY TPW ANIMATIONS ACROSS SW GEORGIA AND PORTIONS OF THE FL PANHANDLE. OTHERWISE... WEAK HIGH PRES PREVAILS ACROSS THE N AND NW GULF WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE FLOW ALL BUT SE PORTIONS. LLVL WIND SURGE ASSOCIATED WITH ERNESTO IN THE W CENTRAL CARIB THIS MORNING...HAS MOVED ACROSS CUBA AND THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TONIGHT...AND WILL PRODUCE FRESH WINDS THROUGH THE STRAITS AND YUCATAN CHANNEL TODAY BEFORE INVERTED TROUGHING DEVELOPS N TO S ACROSS THE SE GULF LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND SHIFTS W THROUGH TUE...HELPING TO REDUCE THE PRES GRADIENT AND WINDS ACROSS THE SE GULF...BUT YIELDING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND CNVTN E OF TROUGH. FRESHENING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS WILL SPREAD THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE TUE AND TUE EVENING AS ERNESTO APPROACHES THE COAST OF BELIZE. ERNESTO FORECAST TO CROSS THE YUCATAN TUE NIGHT AND WED AND EMERGE ACROSS THE FAR SRN BAY OF CAMPECHE WED EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AHEAD OF ERNESTO WED AFTERNOON AND COULD REACH NEAR 12 FT JUST AS THE CENTER IS REACHING WATER. A THIS TIME...THE PROXIMITY TO LAND IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT RE-INTENSIFICATION OF ERNESTO...AND NOT ALLOW IT TO REACH HURRICANE FORCE IN THE GULF. SQUALLS AND NUMEROUS TSTMS WILL REACH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TUE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD ACROSS THE SW GULF WED. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 65W... A 1024 MB HIGH IS CENTERED N OF BERMUDA EXTENDING W-SW TO SC/GA COASTS. A LLVL WIND AND MOISTURE SURGE MOVING ACROSS THE NRN PERIPHERY OF ERNESTO HAS MOVED THROUGH THE SRN BAHAMAS TODAY AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TONIGHT...WITH ASSOCIATED PRES GRADIENT PRODUCING E TO SE WINDS 20-25 KT WINDS THROUGH THIS SRN CORRIDOR S OF 24N. A TUTT STRETCHED NEARLY W TO E ALONG 26N IS AIDING IN MAINTAINING DIVERGENCE ALOFT FOR PERSISTENT ACTIVE CONVECTION ACROSS THIS ZONE OF FRESH WINDS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH SEAS BUILDING 6-8 FT....BEFORE ERNESTO MOVES INTO W CARIB AND WIND AND SEAS BEGIN TO ABATE LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...MODEST WINDS AND SEAS TO PREVAIL THROUGH WED. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL ATLC W OF 55W... T.S. ERNESTO ESTIMATED NEAR 15N 80W AT 0600 UTC SLOWING DOWN TO A W MOTION OF 10 KT WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUST TO 55 KT. BROAD AND ENERGETIC LOW TO MID LEVEL WIND AND MOISTURE SURGE HAS SHIFTED W AND NW ACROSS JAMAICA AND CUBA PAST 18-24 HOURS AND WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE CAYMANS AND NW CARIB NEXT 6-12 HOURS...WITH SQUALLS AND TSTMS...AND QUICKLY BUILDING WINDS AND SEAS. PRESENT FORECAST FOLLOWS GLOBAL MODELS IN SHORT TERM...ALBEIT A BIT N OF THE ECMWF...THEN IS A GOOD CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE GFS AND UKMET IN TERMS OF TIMING UNTIL IT REACHES COAST OF BELIZE TUE EVENING. ERNESTO STILL EXPECTED TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL WHICH WILL GENERATE SEAS TO NEAR 25 FT. SLOWER MOTION IS ALLOWING FOR SWELL TO PROPAGATE INTO NW QUAD OF STORM AND MOVE OUT AHEAD OF SYSTEM...AND WILL AFFECT E COAST OF THE YUCATAN TUE MORNING. A LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING ...WITH WINDS TO 20 KT AND SEAS 6-8 FT ACCOMPANYING THIS SYSTEM. ACTIVE CNVTN WILL SHIFT W WITH THE WAVE ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES TODAY AND INTO THE E AND SE CARIB LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. REMNANTS OF WEAKENING FLORENCE WILL PASS N OF THE AREA WED AND MOVE INTO THE SW N ATLC WATERS WED NIGHT. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECAST IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA... .TROPICAL STORM WARNING AMZ017-019-021. SW N ATLANTIC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING