000 AGXX40 KNHC 030751 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 350 AM EDT FRI AUG 3 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... WESTERN EXTENSION OF ATLC RIDGE STRETCHES SW ACROSS N FLORIDA TO A WEAK HIGH CENTER OVER THE NE GULF THEN W ALONG 27N TO THE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. THIS WEAK PRES PATTERN IS YIELDING LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS...THAT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ENTIRE BASIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH SEAS 2 FT OR LESS E OF 90W...AND 2-3 FT W OF 90W EXCEPT POSSIBLY TO 4 FT IN EXTREME S BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE THE EFFECTS OF WEAK TROPICAL WAVE CROSSING OVER ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC SAT MAY INCREASE SEA HEIGHTS WITH MODERATE NE BREEZE. MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES WITH LITTLE CHANGE OTHERWISE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... ATLC RIDGE REMAINS N OF 30N...CENTERED ON A 1024 MB HIGH ALONG ABOUT 35-36W AND NE OF BERMUDA...EXTENDING SW TO N FLORIDA AND WILL REMAIN GENERALLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE NORTH PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE SLOWLY W-NW ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TODAY AND INTO E AND SE FLORIDA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...AND INTERACT FAVORABLY WITH TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION FOR ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS BAHAMAS AND ADJACENT WATERS. LIGHT TO MODERATE E-SE WINDS WITH SEAS 3-4 FT EXPECTED ACROSS WATERS N OF 23N THROUGH SUN WITH FRESH E-SE WINDS ACROSS SE BAHAMAS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND FRESHENING FLOW ACROSS THE NE CARIB AND ADJACENT ATLC ASSOCIATED WITH ERNESTO THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...THEN SHIFTING W OF 70W ON SAT. SEA EXPECTED TO BUILD 7-9 FT IN E SWELL ACROSS WATERS S OF 23N THIS EVENING THROUGH SUN AS ERNESTO CONTINUES ON W-NW TRACK ACROSS THE CARIB. DRY AIR PERSISTING TO THE NW OF ERNESTO MAY CONTINUE TO BECOME ENTRAINED AND YIELD SQUALLS WELL REMOVED FROM THE STORM...ALLOWING FOR WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF GALE FORCE TONIGHT AND SAT ACROSS ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND ADJACENT ISLANDS. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL ATLC W OF 55W... TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS FAR SW CARIB WILL MOVE W INTO CENTRAL AMERICA TODAY AND TONIGHT AND THEN ACROSS EPAC SAT AND SUN. TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO RACING W AT 21 KT THIS MORNING AND WILL CROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES TODAY. DRY AIR TO THE N AND NW AND MODEST WIND SHEAR ARE NOT EXPECTED TO ALLOW ANY SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION OF ERNESTO DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION SAT NIGHT THROUGH MON...AS ERNESTO BEGINS TO SLOW ITS FORWARD PROGRESS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND W CARIBBEAN. THIS COULD IMPACT SW HAITI...JAMAICA AND THE CAYMANS VERY STRONGLY. HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN N TO NE OF THE CYCLONE CENTER....WITH LARGE SEAS TO 12 FT AFFECTING THE CARIB COASTAL WATERS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND S MONA PASSAGE BY SAT AFTERNOON. REFER TO WTNT25 KNHC FORECAST ADVISORY FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECAST IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA... .TROPICAL STORM WARNING AMZ023-033. SW N ATLANTIC... .TROPICAL STORM WARNING AMZ025-035-037. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING