000 AGXX40 KNHC 300805 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 330 AM EDT MON JUL 30 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... W EXTENSION OF ATLC RIDGE CONTINUES FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO S TEXAS COAST. LIGHT TO MODERATE BREEZE ACROSS ENTIRE BASIN WITH EXCEPTION OF WEAK TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY IN CARIBBEAN ALONG 79W ENTERING YUCATAN CHANNEL FRI...AND ACROSS BAY OF CAMPECHE SAT AND SUN. FRESH NE WINDS WITH SEAS 3-5 FT MAY RUN WITHIN 120 NM AHEAD OF WAVE AXIS. GUIDANCE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO WITH MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND WIND SPEEDS. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... HIGH PRES CENTER AT 32N55W HAS RIDGE EXTEND W-SW TO CENTRAL FL. EXPECT RIDGE AXIS TO SHIFT NW TO ALONG 31N BY TONIGHT THEN SHIFT S AGAIN ALONG 27N BY MID WEEK. SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF RIDGE BRING LIGHT TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS WITH SLIGHT SEAS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF OF CREST OF TROPICAL WAVE WHICH ENTERS EASTERN CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND CROSSES 65W TUE INCREASING NE WINDS AND SEAS S OF 24N. RIDGE RECOVERS QUICKLY FROM WAVE ON THE S...BUT INCURSION FROM SURFACE TROUGH OVER NW CORNER OF BASIN BRING FRESH SW BREEZE N OF 29N W OF 76W THU AND FRI. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL ATLC W OF 55W... THE WEAKENING OF THE COLOMBIAN LOW PRES AND SLIGHT MOVE N OF ATLC HIGH PRES HAVE WEAKENED WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH WINDS REACHING ONLY 25 KT AND SEAS UP TO 7 FT. CONDITIONS HOLD UNTIL NEXT TROPICAL WAVE...PRESENTLY ALONG 59W...ENTER EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT BRINGING NEW BURST OF FRESH NE BREEZE. MODEL GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT WITH WAVE TRACK BUT GFS IS FASTER AND MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH WINDS THAN UKMET AND ECMWF. LOW PRES CENTER 1012 MB CURRENTLY EMBEDDED IN ITCZ NEAR 10N34W MOVING W AT 13 KT EXPECTED TO APPROACH TROPICAL ATLC LATE THU. MODEL GUIDANCE STRENGTHENS FEATURE. ALL MODELS RECOGNIZE SYSTEM AND MAIN DIFFERENCES ARE IN ITS TRACK AND TIMING WITH AGAIN GFS BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE ONE. FORECAST IS MORE CONSERVATIVE BY BLENDING WITH A TAMER UKMET. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECAST IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA... .NONE. SW N ATLANTIC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER WALLY BARNES