000 AGXX40 KNHC 231901 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 255 PM EDT MON JUL 23 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... WESTERN EXTENSION OF ATLC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS BROKEN BY A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 27N86W TO A SPOT 1020 MB LOW ABOUT 90 NMI SW OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. THIS TROUGH AND WEAK LOW IS THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE NE GULF IN ZONE GMZ015. BOTH FEATURES WILL LIFT N OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND TUE AND ALLOW THE SURFACE RIDGE ALONG 27N/28N TO BUILD WWD TUE THROUGH SAT. LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE E-SE WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF WED THROUGH SAT UNDER WEAK HIGH PRES. SEAS WILL BE GENERALLY 3 FT OR LESS EXCEPT FOR A FEW AREAS OF 3-4 FT SEAS IN SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF. NORTHERN PORTION OF TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 71W/72W WILL REACH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THU AND FRI WITH AN INCREASE IN NE TO E WINDS. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 65W... HIGH PRES RIDGE ALONG 28N WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH TONIGHT THEN SHIFT SOUTHWARD TUE THROUGH THU AS A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST SKIRTS THE FAR NE CORNER OF ZONES AMZ113 AND AMZ115 ON THU. W-SW WINDS INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT IN BOTH ZONES WED AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THOSE ZONES. UTILIZED A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF MODELS TO DEPICT THE TIMING OF THE FRONT. IF THE FRONT DROPS FURTHER S INTO THE AREA WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM W-SW TO NW N OF 30N BUT CONSIDERABLY LIGHTER AS THE MAIN ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT SWEEPS OUT TO THE NE. IN ANY EVENT MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE SOUTH OF 23N THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... HIGH PRES RIDGE N OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE FRESH TO STRONG E-NE WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BETWEEN 68-82W THROUGH WED. A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 71W/72W WILL MOVE W THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH LATE WED THEN MOVE W OF THE AREA INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THU. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE WAS INTRODUCED ON THE 12 UTC ANALYSIS ALONG 58W WITH A POSITION BASED ON BACKWARD EXTRAPOLATION OF THE FEATURE OVER THE PAST WEEK AND EASTERLY WAVE DIAGNOSTIC TOOLS. THIS WAVE IS ACCOMPANIED BY ACTIVE WEATHER S OF 14N AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN LATE WED AND THU AND W CARIBBEAN FRI AND SAT. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECAST IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA... .NONE. SW N ATLANTIC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER COBB