000 AGXX40 KNHC 230641 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 300 AM EDT MON JUL 23 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... WESTERN EXTENSION OF ATLC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ALONG 28N WILL DRIFT N THROUGH TONIGHT THEN RETREAT SOUTHWARD TUE AS IT REDEVELOPS ALONG 26-27N. LIGHT TO MODERATE E-SE WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF BY WED UNDER WEAK HIGH PRES. SEAS WILL BE GENERALLY 3 FT OR LESS EXCEPT FOR A FEW AREAS OF 3-4 FT SEAS IN SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF. NORTHERN PORTION OF TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 69W WILL REACH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THU. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 65W... HIGH PRES RIDGE ALONG 28N WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH TONIGHT THEN SHIFT SOUTHWARD TUE THROUGH THU AS A EARLY SEASON COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST DEEPENS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC BETWEEN 60-70W. W-SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 KT N OF 28N ON WED AS THE TROUGH SLOWLY SAGS SOUTHEASTWARD NORTH OF THE AREA. GFS MODEL SHOWS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENING N OF THE AREA TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU WITH THE TRAILING PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING 31N. IF FROPA DOES OCCUR WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM W-SW TO NW N OF 30N THU. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE SOUTH OF 24N THROUGH TUE THEN DIMINISH TO 10 KT OR LESS TUE NIGHT THROUGH FRI AS RIDGE SHIFTS SOUTHWARD. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... HIGH PRES RIDGE N OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE FRESH TO STRONG E-NE WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BETWEEN 70-82W THROUGH WED. A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 69W WILL MOVE W THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH LATE WED THEN MOVE W OF THE AREA INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THU. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECAST IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA... .NONE. SW N ATLANTIC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER MUNDELL